PACIFIC CLASSIC SPECIAL
BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC IMPLICATION WITH FIERCENESS
Summer is fading and fall is fast approaching -- this means that it's time to start thinking about the Breeders' Cup -- when prep races are beginning to heat up.
Two such prep races are this weekend with the Pacific Classic at Del Mar is on Saturday and the Jockey Gold Cup at Saratoga is on Sunday.
The Pacific Classic featuring the standout east coast invader Fierceness who is heading west bringing along a fellow east coast rival Lure Him In (20-1) to meet the west coast rivals Journalism (9-5), Nysos (8-5), Midnight Mammoth (12-1), Tarantino (20-1), Indispensable (15-1) and Ultimate Gamble (20-1).
Looking at the field, popular opinion would say Nysos (8-5) and Journalism (9-5) will via for favoritism while leaving Fierceness (3-1) as the third choice in the betting due to in part that Fierceness finished 5th beaten eight lengths last time out in the Whitney on August 2, 2025.
Personally, I still think that Fierceness is the best horse in the race but the public may not agree with me and they probably will make either Nysos or Journalism as the favorite in the betting -- music to my ears.
More about Fierceness and the rest in a moment but here are the plays.
Bet Fierceness to win/place using double down betting strategy.
BONUS:
The smart way to play this kind of scenario is to hedge the bets using exacta.
Post Time Odds: Observe the post time odds right around two minutes (or less) to actual post time.
1. If the post time odd on Fierceness is higher than 2-1 [favorite or not] - divide the budget amount for the race, say $100, by 3.
The "budget amount" being the amount you have planned to spend on the race being played this hedging strategy.
2. If the post time odd on Fierceness is 2-1 or less [inclusive, favorite or not] - divide the budget amount by 2.
The bonus play is similar to the play I've made last Saturday (8/23/25) in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes at Saratoga won by Patch Adams ($7.00 $4.00 $2.80) with Captain Cook second ($14.40 $6.80) and Barnes third ($4.00) with the exacta Patch Adams over Captain Cook paying $108.50 for a $2 denomination.
In the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes last Saturday I had a budget of $100 for that particular race and the smart way to play that race was to bet Patch Adams to win, and as a bonus, I played the exacta as well.
Using the rule #1 (above) because Patch Adams was 5/2:
$100 / 3 = $33.33
This means that I have roughly $30 for the bonus play to work with and $70 to bet on Patch Adams to win on him -- a return of $245 ($7 x 35).
Now the bonus play: $30
I had four horses on the bottom of the exacta with Verifire (3-1) and Barnes (4-1) as the hedging horses and the other two horses, Madaket Road (12-1) and Captain Cook (20-1) as the "for profit" plays.
In my mind, Verifire was the likeliest horse to come in second behind Patch Adams -- and I'm not alone in that thinking -- the public also thought Verifire was going to be second according to his final odd.
With that mindset, I looked at the probable exacta payoffs about two minutes prior to post time with Patch Adams on top of Verifire and it flashed between $10-$12 and Barnes between $15-$16; while Patch Adams on top of Madaket Road showing between $18-$20.
I divide $30 by $12 = $2.50
I ended up doubling that amount to $5 and put it on Patch Adams over Verifire in an exacta play.
The hedge using exacta (straight):
$5 Patch Adams / Verifire -- a return of $0
$5 Patch Adams / Barnes -- a return of $0
Now $30 - $10 = $20
That leaves $20 for the potential for profit play.
Why $5 each?
Well, the goal is to get the $30 back, hence, hedging!
Most people would just play exacta plainly without some kind of strategy (i.e., hedging) by playing the exacta with a key horse on top and several horses on the bottom using equal amounts for horses on the bottom of the key horse.
That is a bad way to play -- but a smart way to play is to play according to the ratio of the horses' odds.
For example, in the the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes I like Patch Adams (5/2 favorite) a lot that I put him on top of Madaket Road (12-1) and Captain Cook (20-1) and then hedged those two bets by putting Verifire (3-1 second choice) and Barnes (4-1 third choice) on the bottom of Patch Adams.
Do you see what's going on here?
Two horses to hedge and two horses to play for profit.
If Patch Adams/Verifire finished in that order I would get my $30 money back (12 x 2.5).
I would get the same result if Barnes came in second behind Patch Adams -- I would get my $30 money back as well.
So the smart way is to NEVER play the exacta with equal amounts if you have multiple horses on the bottom of a key horse.
Now the two horses I wanted to play were Madaket Road (8-1) and Captain Cook (20-1), so I allocated the remaining $20 accordingly according to their odds -- 2 to 1 (with Madaket Road getting twice the amount of Captain Cook).
So I played $15 exacta with Patch Adams over Madaket Road -- a return of $0.
And $5 exacta with Patch Adams over Captain Cook -- a return of $271.25
As you can see, the exacta with Patch Adams over Captain Cook paid $108.50 for a $2 denomination.
The win bet on Patch Adams ($70 to win) resulted in $245 ($7 x 35).
You might wonder and ask, why not split the amount equally and bet the two exactas the same amount?
After all, had I done that I would've had $10 exacta on Patch Adams over Captain Cook which would've resulted in $542.50 verses only $245.
In hindsight, yes -- but we don't get the benefit of the foresight ahead of time.
So the best and smart way to do is to stick to the rules just outlined above and live with it and in the long run it will benefit more than trying the traditional way of betting.
With that said, let's use the same rules and scenarios outlined above and apply it to the Pacific Classic this Saturday August 30, 2025.
I like Fierceness (3-1 third choice) a lot and I will use Fierceness as the anchor key horse on top of Journalism (9-5 second choice) and Nysos (8-5 favorite) as the hedging horses while using Indispensable (15-1) and Ultimate Gamble (20-1) as the "for profit" exacta plays.
Using the same scenarios described above but this time doubling the "bonus" amount to $60 from $30 and we have:
The hedge using exacta (straight):
$10 Fierceness / Journalism
$10 Fierceness / Nysos
Now $60 - $20 = $40
That leaves $40 for the potential for profit plays.
Now the "for profit" plays using exacta (straight):
Again, NEVER play the exacta with equal amounts if you have multiple horses on the bottom of a key horse.
Looking at the two horses' odd with Indispensable at 15-1 and Ultimate Gamble at 20-1 we can say that Indispensable is almost half the odd of Ultimate Gamble, so we'll use $15 for Indispensable and $25 for Ultimate Gamble.
That is close enough!
$15 exacta Fierceness / Indispensable
$25 exacta Fierceness / Ultimate Gamble
That is it!
If you want to play Fierceness as well you can play it as win/place using double down betting strategy.
Personally, that's what I would do!
And in addition, as a "BONUS", I will play exactly as outlined above.
Fierceness is the class of the field and I'm a little surprise that he is 3-1 in the morning line, but when it all said and done he will probably be right around 5-2 second choice behind Nysos whose odd will be right around 2-1 favorite.
That's how I see it.
Fierceness even at 5-2 is very generous considering he is near the top of the older division.
Had he won the Whitney last time out he would be the leader of the older division right now.
Fierceness was among the very top 3yos last year and he would've won the Breeders' Cup Classic if not for that bonehead rider named Velazquez when he rode Fierceness too close to the very fast pace -- and to Fierceness' credit he stuck on for second beaten only two lengths.
His connections knew that 2025 was going to be Fierceness last year as a racehorse so they freshened him during winter and then they put him on the Kentucky Oaks undercard 2025 in the Alysheba Stakes when he broke the track/stakes records winning it while coming off a six-month layoff.
*****************
Here is an excerpt of what I wrote back then:
WOW! -- A TRACK RECORD BY FIERCENESS !!!
Fierceness (4-5), the odds-on favorite, broke a course and stakes records of 1:41.04 set by Successful Dan, who also carried 118 pounds in winning the 2012 Alysheba.
In a field of six horses while traveling three wide before launching a full-on attack down the homestretch on the way to a 1 1/2-length triumph in the Grade 2, $750,000 Alysheba Stakes, a 1 1/16-mile test for older horses on the Kentucky Oaks undercard, Fierceness won going away despite coming off a six-month layoff after finishing second in the Breeders' Cup Classic last fall (November 2024).
"For him to have that wide trip purposely, where Johnny [Velazquez] just kept him wide and out of trouble and still break a track record?"
Fierceness's lead owner Mike Repole said.
"I mean this is a really, really special horse."
"He's a nice horse, and he showed it today, but wow," Pletcher said.
"A track record at Churchill Downs, that's a really big deal."
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His next start was one month later on Belmont Stakes day in the Met Mile when he was sent off as a heavy favorite but only to be out gamed by a determined fast sprinter Raging Torrent in a very fast run race.
So Fierceness ran two consecutive very fast races while coming off a six-month layoff and it took a toll on him when he showed up in the Whitney last time out on August 2, 2025.
Fierceness was moving like he was going to win halfway around the far turn and he took over the lead at the quarter pole and seemed to pull away by three lengths approaching the 8th pole, but soon thereafter Fierceness showed signs of fatigue from prior two fast-run races and he got swallowed up by deep closers like Sierra Leone and the rest.
Fierceness got tired to finish 5th beaten by almost eight lengths.
Yes, eight lengths!
He is a better horse than that!
This tells me that the two fast-run races took a toll on him and now that he got three races under his belt and freshened up a little bit he should be back to his old-self again this Saturday.
So look for Fierceness to run like the top two older horses in the older division with Sierra Leone being the other one atop Fierceness.
With that said, I will say this:
This is the easiest money you'll ever going to get this Saturday at Del Mar or at any other racetracks.
So take the easy money -- and I know I will.
Bet Fierceness to win/place using double down betting strategy.
JOCKEY GOLD CUP SPECIAL
BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC IMPLICATION WITH SIERRA LEONE
Let's use the same rules and scenarios outlined in the Pacific Classic above and apply it to the Jockey Gold Cup at Saratoga this Sunday August 31, 2025.
Likewise, I like the favorite Sierra Leone (8-5) a lot since the rest have not been impressive in their respective few races and I will use Sierra Leone as the anchor key horse on top of Mindframe (2-1 second choice) and White Abarrio (8-1 fourth choice) as the hedging horses while using Highland Falls (5-1 second choice) and Contrary Thinking (50-1) as the "for profit" exacta plays.
YES, YOU ARE SEEING IT RIGHT: I'm using Contrary Thinking, a 50-1 longest odd in the field, as a "for profit" play.
More about Contrary Thinking a little bit later.
Using the same scenarios described above with the "bonus" amount of $60, we have:
The hedge using exacta (straight):
$10 Sierra Leone / Mindframe
$10 Sierra Leone / White Abarrio
Note: We're using an 8-1 longshot to hedge and this is not by design but rather by accident due to the fact that I wrote this post prior to the morning line odds were made available -- and in my opinion, I thought White Abarrio was going to be 7-2 or 4-1 third choice but they made Highland Falls as the 5-1 third choice instead.
Nonetheless, my original plays stay the same regardless of the revelation of the actual morning line odds.
Now $60 - $20 = $40
That leaves $40 for the potential for profit plays.
Now the "for profit" plays using exacta (straight):
Again, NEVER play the exacta with equal amounts if you have multiple horses on the bottom of a key horse.
Looking at the two horses' odd with Highland Falls at 5-1 and Contrary Thinking at 50-1, we can say that Contrary Thinking is exactly ten times larger than the odd of Highland Falls, so we'll use $10 for Contrary Thinking and $30 for Highland Falls.
Not a 10 to 1 ratio but it is close enough!
$10 exacta Sierra Leone / Contrary Thinking
$30 exacta Sierra Leone / Highland Falls
That is it!
If you want to play Sierra Leone as well you can play him to win only.
Personally, that's what I would do!
And in addition, I will play exactly as outlined above as well.
Sierra Leone is the class of the field and a standout and probably a short-price favorite.
Regarding Sierra Leone and the win bet -- I'm going to say this:
"This is the easiest money you'll ever going to get on the Saratoga card or on any other cards for that matter on this Sunday August 31, 2025."
With that said, let's examine in dept about Contrary Thinking and see why I chose to use him as my for-profit play.
Contrary Thinking is a lightly raced 5yo gelding with only six races to his resume.
The fact that he has only six races is not by accident nor intentional but rather due to some soundness issues prior to and during his brief racing career.
Contrary Thinking was a $280,000 yearling purchase and he is by Into Mischief out of a Curlin mare Valadorna -- so he is a well-bred horse but soundness issues prevented him from racing in his early years.
Contrary Thinking didn't start his racing career until his four-year-old year which was 2024.
He won his debut race in April 2024, running six furlongs at Aqueduct; he then finished 5th at Saratoga in June 2024, running 6 1/2 furlongs in an allowance race.
After two races he was done for the year due to soundness issues.
He showed up in March the following year (2025) in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance race and he finished 6th (at Aqueduct).
One month later in April 2025 he finished 4th in a six-furlong allowance race (also at Aqueduct).
Two months later he won a one-mile allowance race in June 2025 (also at Aqueduct).
Then two months later his stable mate Sierra Leone came calling, "I need you to run a rabbit race for me in the Whitney," which was on August 2, 2025, in which, Sierra Leone won the race -- "Job well done, Contrary Thinking!"
Now the reason that Contrary Thinking is in this race, in my opinion, is not to make a rabbit race for Sierra Leone, but to win this race outright -- in my opinion!
Yes, you are seeing it right: Contrary Thinking is capable of winning this race outright.
He is a lightly race but the talent is there, and with everybody [i.e., opposing trainers/jockeys] is thinking that Contrary Thinking is just in this race to do a rabbit race, they will leave him alone -- and surprise, surprise -- Contrary Think steals the race and wins it outright.
However, as soon as the horses crossed the finish line the stewards lit up the "Inquiry" sign looking into the stretch run involving Contrary Thinking and Sierra Leone, when Sierra Leone was moving like a freight train looking like he was going to win the race easily inside the 8th pole when Contrary Thinking got leg-wary and drifted out to the outside and into Sierra Leone's path causing Sierra Leone to shift outward and may even got bumped by Contrary Thinking.
Sierra Leone lost all momentum and finished second behind his stable mate Contrary Thinking.
After a long inquiry the stewards disqualified Contrary Thinking and placed him second behind Sierra Leone, and soon thereafter it became official.
We get the win and exacta bets!
SWEET!
SWEET!
SWEET!
That's how I see it!
That is my handicapping angle for this weekend!
