HAPPY BREEDERS' CUP, EVERYBODY!
LET'S START THE BREEDERS' CUP SATURDAY OFF WITH A BANG!
Using the parlay guideline outlined earlier this week, we're going to use two parlays (two parlay sets) for this Breeders' Cup Saturday with Nysos and Fierceness as our main third-leg anchors.
FIRST SET:
You know I love two-year-old races and this one should start us off with a "BANG!"
1st leg:
1 Mile Open 2 Year Olds Nashua Stakes PURSE: $150,000
Date: Saturday November 1, 2025
Track: Belmont At BigA
Race: 4
Surface: Dirt
Horse: My World (ML 6-5)
Bet My World to win (He will win in a "ROMP" at a very low odd in my opinion -- hey, a win is a win!).
2nd leg:
I couldn't help it but to choose this race as the 2nd leg after seeing Tagermeen in entry at Churchill Downs race 6 of a two-year-old race and this one should continue us with a "BANG!" as well -- albeit at low odd.
Remember that the parlay rule says that you can choose to have any tracks available to you to play the parlay, and this one fits the parlay rule perfectly.
7 Furlongs Open 2 Year Olds MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT PURSE: $120,000
Date: Saturday November 1, 2025
Track: Churchill Downs
Race: 6
Surface: dirt
Horse: Tagermeen (ML 2-1 but I think he will be 4/5 or lower at post time)
Bet Tagermeen to win (and don't even bother to waste your money by betting it to place also because Tagermeen is going to win this race at low odd).
Tagermeen made his debut Saturday July 12th (2025), in Race 1 at Saratoga in a 6f maiden sp wt race. Morning line odds 7/2. He finished 2nd to a very good 2yo named Curtain Call.
He then ran into a buzzsaw Ted Noffey on August 2, 2025, and he finished 4th in that 6 1/2 furlongs maiden sp wt race (at Saratoga).
Most recently, he ran into another monster named Englishman on September 19, 2025, in the 7f maiden sp wt race when he finished 3rd (at Churchill Downs).
So Tagermeen ran into three buzzsaws in his three races thus far and I don't see any monster or buzzsaw in this race.
So I will say this:
This is the easiest money you'll ever going to get on Breeders' Cup Saturday November 1, 2025.
Tagermeen is a young, bay Thoroughbred racehorse who commanded a $1.4 million price tag at a 2025 auction.
The colt is owned by Tagermeen Racing, a Libyan-based partnership that made a splash at several high-profile sales in 2025.
Key details about the horse:
Birth: Foaled on May 8, 2023.
Lineage: He is sired by the renowned stallion Into Mischief and is a full brother to the undefeated, but tragically deceased, stakes winner Taraz. His dam is Silk Route.
Sale: Tagermeen was purchased as a 2-year-old in April 2025 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Spring Sale. The buyers, represented by agent Mahmud Mouni, paid $1.4 million.
Training: He was put under the guidance of Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen.
3rd leg:
1 Mile Open 3 Year Olds And Up G1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile PURSE: $1,000,000
Date: Saturday November 1, 2025
Track: Del Mar
Race: 11
Surface: dirt
Horse: Nysos (ML 8-5 favorite)
Bet Nysos (ML 8-5) to win, place using double down betting strategy.
Put all of the accumulated money on him because I think he has a very good chance to be at least 2nd (if not win).
I think Nysos will win this race, even though it looks like a wide open race.
SECOND SET:
1st leg:
7 Furlongs Fillies and Mares 3 Year Olds And Up G1 PNC Bank Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint PURSE: $1,000,000
Date: Saturday November 1, 2025
Track: Del Mar
Race: 4
Surface: Dirt
Horse: Richi (CHI) (ML 5-1 fourth choice behind the 2-1 favorite Sweet Azteca, 7-2 second choice Tamara, 4-1 third choice Hope Rode)
Bet Richi (CHI) to win, place using double down betting strategy.
2nd leg:
1 1/8 Miles Fillies and Mares 3 Year Olds And Up G1 Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff PURSE: $2,000,000
Date: Saturday November 1, 2025
Track: Del Mar
Race: 7
Surface: Dirt
Horse: Scottish Lassie (ML 12-1)
Bet Scottish Lassie to win, place, show using double down betting strategy.
Yes, this qualifies as my Breeders' Cup Saturday longshot play and Scottish Lassie (ML 12-1) is a "live" longshot despite the enormous presence of the likely 6/5 or 4/5 heavy favorite Seismic Beauty in this race.
3rd leg:
1 1/4 Miles Open 3 Year Olds And Up G1 Longines Breeders' Cup Classic PURSE: $7,000,000
Date: Saturday November 1, 2025
Track: Del Mar
Race: 9
Surface: Dirt
Horse: Fierceness (ML 5-2 favorite because as of this writing there is a report that Sovereignty is likely to be scratched due to illness; this makes Fierceness as the likely 9-5 post time favorite, in my opinion. Even if Sovereignty is still in this race I will still pick Fierceness to win as a third-leg "cinch" horse.)
Bet Fierceness (ML 5-2) to win and put all of the accumulated money on him because I think he is going to win this race.
B.S. CRYSTAL BALL BONUS:
I like the likely favorite Fierceness (5-2) as the key horse on top of the exacta (bonus) play and I will use Sovereignty (6-5 favorite if he is not scratched) as the hedging horse, but if he is scratched I will use Journalism as the hedging horse; while in either cases, I will use Nevada Beach (20-1 longshot) and Contrary Thinking (50-1) as the "for profit" exacta plays.
YES, YOU ARE SEEING IT RIGHT: I'm using Contrary Thinking, a 50-1 longest odd in the field, as a "for profit" play.
More about Contrary Thinking a little bit later.
Using the hypothetical "bonus" amount of $60, we have:
The hedge using exacta (straight):
$10 Fierceness / Sovereignty
OR if Sovereignty is scratched:
$10 Fierceness / Journalism
Now $60 - $10 = $50
That leaves $50 for the potential for profit plays.
Now the "for profit" plays using exacta (straight):
Note: NEVER play the exacta with equal amounts if you have multiple horses on the bottom of a key horse.
Looking at the two horses' odds Nevada Beach (20-1 longshot) and Contrary Thinking (50-1 longest odd) as the "for profit" exacta plays, we can say that Contrary Thinking is more than twice larger than the odd of Nevada Beach, so we'll use $20 for Contrary Thinking and $30 for Nevada Beach and that is totalled to $50.
$20 exacta Fierceness / Contrary Thinking
$30 exacta Fierceness / Nevada Beach
That is it!
Fierceness is the class of the field and a standout and probably a 2-1 favorite.
With that said, let's examine in dept about Contrary Thinking and see why I chose to use him as my for-profit play.
Contrary Thinking is a lightly raced 5yo gelding with only six races to his resume.
The fact that he has only six races is not by accident nor intentional but rather due to some soundness issues prior to and during his brief racing career.
Contrary Thinking was a $280,000 yearling purchase and he is by Into Mischief out of a Curlin mare Valadorna -- so he is a well-bred horse but soundness issues prevented him from racing in his early years.
Contrary Thinking didn't start his racing career until his four-year-old year which was 2024.
He won his debut race in April 2024, running six furlongs at Aqueduct; he then finished 5th at Saratoga in June 2024, running 6 1/2 furlongs in an allowance race.
After two races he was done for the year due to soundness issues.
He showed up in March the following year (2025) in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance race and he finished 6th (at Aqueduct).
One month later in April 2025 he finished 4th in a six-furlong allowance race (also at Aqueduct).
Two months later he won a one-mile allowance race in June 2025 (also at Aqueduct).
Then two months later his stable mate Sierra Leone came calling, "I need you to run a rabbit race for me in the Whitney," which was on August 2, 2025, in which, Sierra Leone won the race -- "Job well done, Contrary Thinking!"
And then one month later (8/31/25) he was called to do a dirty job again for his stable mate Sierra Leone in the Jockey Gold Cup at Saratoga where he set a very fast pace and finished last.
Now the reason that Contrary Thinking is in this race, in my opinion, is not to make a rabbit race for Sierra Leone, but to win this race outright -- in my opinion!
Yes, you are seeing it right: Contrary Thinking is capable of winning this race outright.
He is a lightly race but the talent is there, and with everybody [i.e., opposing trainers/jockeys] are thinking that Contrary Thinking is just in this race to do a rabbit race, so they will leave him alone -- and lo and behold, surprise, surprise -- Contrary Thinking steals the race and wins it outright.
However, as soon as the horses crossed the finish line the stewards lit up the "Inquiry" sign looking into the stretch run involving Contrary Thinking, Sierra Leone, Fierceness, and a few other horses -- when Sierra Leone was moving like a freight train looking like he was going to win the race really easily at the 8th pole when Contrary Thinking got legs-wary and drifted out to the outside and into a group of on-rushing horses' path, including Sierra Leone's.
Sierra Leone lost all momentum and continued willingly thereafter while Contrary Thinking sprinted clear toward home when Fierceness and Nevada Beach emerged from the trouble group just a moment earlier and collared Contrary Thinking approaching the 16th pole.
Fierceness and Contrary Thinking battled each other shoulder-to-shoulder through the stretch and appeared to exchange bumps with each other several times while Fierceness took the worse of the bumping from Contrary Thinking.
Contrary Thinking surged ahead over Fierceness approaching the wire to win going away by a widening two lengths over Fierceness.
After a long inquiry the stewards disqualified Contrary Thinking and placed him second behind Fierceness, followed by the running order with Nevada Beach in third, Sierra Leone in fourth.
Soon thereafter it became official.
The stewards' explanation saying even though Contrary Thinking started the chain reaction in the stretch run, Contrary Thinking was a length and a half in front, and therefore, he was not subjected/warranted for a disqualification to be fifth behind the trouble-trip Sierra Leone.
However, the stewards took the later incident involving Contrary Thinking and Fierceness seriously and ended up disqualifying Contrary Thinking to second behind Fierceness due to the bumping incident inside the 16th pole that, in stewarts' perspective, effected the outcome of the race and denied Fierceness a fair chance of winning the race.
THANKS TO MY "B.S. CRYSTAL BALL!"
We get the win and exacta bets!
SWEET!
SWEET!
SWEET!
That's how I see it!
That is my handicapping angle for this Breeders' Cup Weekend, THANKS TO MY "B.S. CRYSTAL BALL!"
ENJOY THE BREEDERS' CUP EVERYBODY!
SEE YOU ALL NEXT YEAR!
