DERBY WEEK THIS WEEK!
HAPPY DERBY WEEK EVERYBODY!
The post position for the 2026 Kentucky Derby is set, and it looks like a wide-open race.
My betting strategy for this year's Derby is very simple, and that is, keying the likely lukewarm favorite Further Ado to finish second in the exacta play.
This is a very sound strategy with this kind of race where all of the horses in the field are very competitive and wide open, and anyone can win this race with a huge odd.
Yes, HUGE odd, indeed -- which this strategy calls for in order to make a descend return on the investment.
I used this same strategy way back in 2009 when it was a wide-open race with no outstanding favorite with Friesan Fire who went off as the 7-2 favorite and Pioneer of the Nile went off as the 6-1 second choice.
Because I didn't like Friesan Fire in that race, I chose Pioneer of the Nile to use on the bottom single and back-wheel it with the field in an exacta play.
In other words, I put the field on top of Pioneer of the Nile in the exacta play, and it paid like $1,900 for a $2 exacta (if I remember correctly).
It cost me $38 for the exacta back-wheel and won $1,900 for the play.
I will do exactly the same thing in this race by putting Further Ado in the bottom of the exacta play with the field on top and probably will cost me $38 as well (if there is no scratches) for the race.
In my opinion, Further Ado is in a class by himself with others just a tad below him, making this betting strategy very sound since the best horse doesn't always win in the Ky Derby due to a lot of factors, traffic is the primary factor that makes a best horse lose.
I think Further Ado is the best horse in this year's Ky Derby, but the best horse doesn't always win the Ky Derby, so I will play him to finish second instead and hope for a very longshot to win this race, making a potential HUGE exacta payoff.
In the 2009, Pioneer of the Nile (6-1) finished second to Mine that Bird (50-1), making a huge exacta payoff.
I am hoping that same scenario will play out in this year's Ky Derby as well.
The play:
Exacta: Field over Further Ado.
ENJOY THE DERBY EVERYBODY!
