Pick for Saturday March 16, 2024:
1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | PURSE: $57,000
Track: Fair Grounds
Race: 8
Horse: Cornishman (ML 8-5).
Field (in post position order):
1. Gun Party (ML 5-2)
2. Patriarchal (ML 8-1)
3. Cascade Cruiser (ML 12-1)
4. On My Honor (ML 15-1)
5. Falcon Quest (ML 20-1)
6. Elephants Ear (ML 8-1)
7. Kissthemoon (ML15-1)
8. Air It Out (ML 5-1)
9. Cornishman (ML 8-5)
Looking at the race and put my handicapping knowledge to use it looks to be a two-horse race between Cornishman (ML 8-5) and Gun Party (ML 5-2) -- at least that's what I see.
From my handicapping point of view, Cornishman (ML 8-5) is the most likely winner of the 8th race [at Fair Grounds] on this Saturday March 16, 2024.
So bet Cornishman (ML 8-5) to win and place.
As you read the actual two-horse race angle keep in mind that the bet on the favorite is supposed to be a "WIN" bet only -- and not win and place bets.
However, for this race I made an exception to bet win and place due to a huge field and other factors that it makes sense to bet win and place.
Again, the two-horse race angle is strictly calls for a win bet only and nothing else.
Having clarified that, let's forge on:
Two-Horse Race Angle
This angle has to do with a two-horse race and the two horses have to be the first and second choice in the betting for today's race.
This race is a two-horse race, and we can use this angle to our advantage.
The thinking is that, I think the favorite is going to win the race and we should bet a lot of money on the favorite, but since this is a two-horse race, we can't put a lot of money on the favorite due to the fact that the second choice is so dangerous in upsetting the favorite -- and we can't take that chance to have a lot of our money on the favorite.
In this race the favorite being Cornishman (ML 8-5) and the second choice being Gun Party (ML 5-2).
What do we do?
This race is a perfect scenario that you see all the time where you have two good horses and the rest are just not good enough to compete with the two horses.
So how should we play the race?
The most conventional way to play the race -- at least for most horseplayers -- is to play exacta by putting the favorite over the second choice.
That is what most horseplayers often do but to no avail due to the fact that the second choice is so dangerous in upsetting the favorite.
The next question is: Box the two favorites, perhaps?
Answer: Maybe!
But the true answer and a smart way to play is to use this "two-horse" race angle to our advantage.
That is the smart way to do it.
So in order to put a lot of money with confidence on the favorite Cornishman, which I think has a very good chance to win the race, we have to hedge our bets to protect our money on the favorite.
The keyword here is confidence -- we need to have a certain level of confidence in order to put a lot of money on the favorite Cornishman.
Our goal is to stand behind the favorite Cornishman and hope that he will come through; however, on the other hand, if the second choice Gun Party beats the favorite and the favorite comes in second -- we will get most of our money back -- hence, hedging.
If the latter happens, we live to bet another race (or another day or another week or another month).
We're not expecting to get rich by any means -- after all, we're talking about two favorites in the betting.
With that said, let's forge on:
From my handicapping point of view, Cornishman is the most likely winner of this race.
Having said that, the second choice (Gun Party) is so dangerous in this race and he is for real and he can upset the favorite.
Knowing that we have to hedge our bets to protect our money.
A smart way to bet is to hedge the bets.
To hedge our bets to protect our money on the favorite, play the race as follows:
Bet Cornishman to win [and place].
[Again, this angle calls for a win bet only but for this race I made an exception to bet as win and place.]
Put a lot of money on Cornishman to win [and place using triple down betting strategy].
As I often say:
Put a lot of money on Cornishman to win [and place] to make it worthwhile and justified going to the racetrack.
And this is especially true for this race as well.
This is where we potentially make some money -- not a lot but some -- depending on how much money you're willing to put on the horse.
At this point, I feel very confident about Cornishman according to the statistics and my handicapping skills and experiences.
Once again, the keyword here is confident -- I need to have a certain level of confidence in order to put a lot of money on Cornishman.
And I do have a lot of confidence in Cornishman winning this race.
So make sure you put some considerable amount of money on Cornishman to win [and place] to make it worthwhile and justified going to the racetrack and at the same time you're comfortable doing so.
Not only that, the following hedging play should give you more confidence and calm your nerve a bit.
HEDGING:
Play the exacta by putting Gun Party on top of Cornishman.
Notice that we're not putting Cornishman over Gun Party.
We're not doing that.
This is a hedging bet.
This seems counter-intuitive -- after all, this is a two-horse race.
Why not killing two birds with one stone?
Ahh! ...... this is called greed!
We don't want to be greedy!
We just want to take the win bets and that is it!
No more!
We don't want to play the exacta (but only to hedge).
That is a smart way to play this race.
If the two favorites run one-two just like we and the public thought they would -- that's our goal!
Be satisfied and don't second-guess your betting actions.
Most horse players would say, "I should've played the exacta on [the favorite] over [the second choice], too. This is easy money!"
After all, we and the public think that this is a two-horse race with the favorite is the most likely winner and the second choice is likely to come in second.
Why not try to make more money?
Again, that is pure greed!
And that greed could lead to trouble.
The next question is: How much money to edge?
See the following.
Post Time Odds: Observe the probable exacta payoffs right around two minutes (or less) to actual post time.
If you don't have time to look for the probable exacta payoffs just use an educated guess and go from there.
As a general rule, divide the win bet amount on [the favorite] by the probable exacta payoff combination using [the second choice] over [the favorite].
In other words, divide the amount that you bet on Cornishman to win by the probable exacta payoff combination on Gun Party over Cornishman.
Make note: Use the win bet only -- and not "place" bet.
Again, to get the probable exacta payoff combination on Gun Party over Cornishman, you have to look at the toteboard that displays the probable exacta payoffs.
Again, if you don't have time to look for the probable exacta payoffs just use an educated guess and go from there.
Depending on the field size and competition the probable exacta payoff with [the second choice] over [the favorite] will probably be right around $7 or $8.
For example, assuming you're betting $20 to win on [the favorite] and the probable exacta payoff with [the second choice] over [the favorite] is $7, you divide $20 by $7, which is right around $3 (rounding up to the nearest whole number).
As a general rule, if it's an odd number rounding up to the next even number, $4 in this case.
So you would bet the exacta $4 on [the second choice] over [the favorite].
In other words, you would bet the exacta $4 on Gun Party over Cornishman.
This means that our hedging returns $14 and we're still losing $6 on our entire scheme.
It doesn't seem like a good scheme -- does it?
Don't be over zealous or greedy by putting too much money on the exacta that it would eat into your profits if the favorite (Cornishman) wins.
The Hedging Scheme Above Aims To Achieve Two Objectives:
1. To lessen the pain in case the second choice beats the favorite.
2. To be "comfortable" enough to put a lot of money with "confidence" on the favorite.
The keywords here are "comfortable" and "confidence" -- we need to be "comfortable" and have a certain level of "confidence" in order to put a lot of money on the favorite.
Those are the two objectives of the hedging scheme.
Our hedging scheme is not to make money but to lessen the pain while having the courage to put a lot of money on the favorite to win.
Now the two-horse race angle with a hedging scheme is complete.
But wait! -- there's more!
What happens if you like the second choice better than the favorite?
In that case, you have three options:
1. Play the angle in reverse.
In other words, reverse the roles -- with the favorite as the second choice and the second choice, which is the horse you actually like, as the favorite.
And then follow the stated angle described above normally, but only this time, the second choice acts as the favorite and the favorite acts as the second choice -- not necessarily that their odds will indicate and end up in such order.
2. Play the race as you normally would and bet the race accordingly.
In other words, don't use this angle (or hedging scheme) but feel free to bet the horse the way you normally bet.
3. Do not play the race -- pass it up and sit on the sideline.
Those are the three options you can choose to play the race [choose one].
Now the two-horse race angle with a hedging scheme is complete.
Copy the following description and take it to the track.
NOW THE SUMMARY OF THE TWO-HORSE RACE ANGLE
1. The Play: Bet the favorite to win.
Put a lot of money on the favorite to win.
2. Hedging: Divide the "win" bet amount on the favorite (from step 1 above) by the probable exacta payoff combination on the second choice over the favorite.
Using the result from the division (from this step 2) to bet the exacta on the second choice over the favorite.
Those are the two steps in the two-horse race angle.
But that is only using the favorite as the play.
The other way is to use the second choice as the play.
Now what happens if you like the second choice better than the favorite?
In that case, you reverse the roles -- with the favorite as the second choice and the second choice, which is the horse you actually like, as the favorite -- and follow the angle described earlier accordingly.
1. The Play: Bet the second choice to win.
Put a lot of money on the second choice to win.
Hedging: Divide the "win" bet amount on the second choice (from step 1 above) by the probable exacta payoff combination on the favorite over the second choice.
Using the result from the division (from this step 2) to bet the exacta on the favorite over the second choice.
As you can see again, it's just two steps.
Very simple!
AS YOU CAN SEE ABOVE WE HAVE TWO WAYS TO PLAY THE TWO-HORSE RACE ANGLE
1. Play the angle by betting the favorite to win and hedging using the second choice over the favorite.
OR
Play the angle by betting the second choice to win and hedging using the favorite over the second choice.
AS YOU CAN SEE ABOVE CHOOSE ONE OR THE OTHER
So it's up to you to choose to play one or the other, but not both!
Yes, that is right: DO NOT PLAY BOTH WAYS!
That is it!
SUGGESTION:
For those of you in the US who do your own handicapping you can use this "two-horse" race angle whenever you see one.
Just copy the angle description described above and put it in your pocket whenever you go to the racetrack and use it whenever you see a race that is a two-horse race.
There are plenty of scenarios/races that are two-horse races all the time.
So use this angle to your advantage.
There you have it!
