Paul Tuon
Hey, people! -- I am feeling lonely commenting by myself. Join me in posting comments and replies.

Open to all topics!!!


To those of you who are horse racing fans I give out my personal picks regularly when I see opportunities.

To see my personal picks login to your account to get a link to my picks.

Paul Tuon 3 days ago
A NEW HOPE AND EXCITEMENT RETURNS!

Go Greenwell Go!


A new hope and excitement return for his second start of his young career hoping to carry the family banner to glory; and perhaps, helping erase some of the disappointments left by big sister and big brother (Thearavada and Phnom Penh).


YES, A NEW GENERATION OF HOPE AND EXCITEMENT HAS RETURNED FOR HIS SECOND START, AND HIS NAME IS GREENWELL.


Greenwell (KEESEP25 $500,000) is entered to run on Saturday July 18, 2026, at Saratoga, race 1, in a 6-furlong, Dirt, Maiden Special Weight Open | 2 Year Olds | Purse: $115,000.


He is listed as the 2-1 2nd choice in the morning line behind the 8-5 favorite Steven M. Asmussen-trained Powerline, by Flightline. Powerline was purchased for $1.8 million (FTSAUG25 $1,800,000).

The third choice at 3-1 is the well-bred, home-bred Brad Cox-trained The Good Life, by Life Is Good.


Powerline definitely one of the most talked-about unraced 2yo in the country. So don't expect an 8-5 morning line to be upheld at post time. It will be much lower -- perhaps at 3/5 ???

One month ago, he was scratched from a race at CD due to a very sloppy track.

Lots of folks have been waiting to see Powerline get to the races.

Personally, whether Powerline is a hype horse or not [I don't think he is], but I will play against him and direct my full attention toward my sentimental favorite Greenwell and hoping he can give Powerline a run for his money.

I will play Greenwell to win and exacta (straight/no boxing) Greenwell over Powerline.


Here is an excerpt from an article by the Union Time:


Powerline, high-priced son of Horse of the Year Flightline, debuts Saturday July 18 at Saratoga


SARATOGA SPRINGS - The much-anticipated debut for a 2-year-old son of the legendary Flightline is here.

Powerline, a $1.8 million purchase by West Point Thoroughbreds and John Oxley at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Sale in 2025, will make his first start against a speedy, potential-packed field in Race 1 on Saturday (7/18/2026) at Saratoga Race Course.


“We bought him last year up here and he was so popular,” West Point founder and president Terry Finley said. “And this is the first horse we've owned with John Oxley. I've always been a great admirer of John Oxley.”

Powerline will debut going six furlongs on the dirt. Six other horses are entered against him, though the Kinnon LaRose-trained Got Tough appears likely to scratch out of the race.

“It's exciting,” Finley said. “I can't remember a horse that has had this kind of build up. But we all knock on wood. There have been plenty of horses that haven't always lived up to it.”

His debut at Saratoga comes after scratching out of his originally scheduled debut at Churchill Downs on June 27 due to wet conditions.

“I know we don't have any choice but that may turn out to be a blessing,” Finley said of scratching that day and having to wait for Saratoga to debut.


That was on Stephen Foster Stakes day, when Powerline's trainer Steve Asmussen still ended up having an excellent day. His 4-year-old colt Magnitude handled a tough field that included Sovereignty, Baeza and White Abarrio to make it a perfect 3-for-3 in his 2026 campaign.

Asmussen is excited to see what Powerline will do for his connections Saturday (7/18/2026).


“He's a very nice horse,” Asmussen said. “Everybody's thought the world of him up to this point and he's as advertised - a very nice horse.”

He also knows his work will be cut out for him on the race track.

“We're at Saratoga,” Asmussen added. “Nothing's easy.”

Ricardo Santana Jr. gets the mount, and it seems like an ideal fit given how Santana has been guiding horses to the winner's circle as of late.

Powerline is expected to go to the front of the field early, much like his father. Flightline only raced six times in a two-year career, but won every single race in dominant fashion, including four victories by double-digit lengths. Flightline capped off his career with an 8-length win in the 2022 Breeders' Cup Classic en route to Horse of the Year Honors.

Flightline's first crop of foals are racing as 2-year-olds this year (2026).

Asmussen's assistant trainer Scott Blasi said he, too, is excited for the debut, as he's seen some of Powerline's early ability - and temperament - over the last 11 months.

“You know what I love about this horse?,” Blasi said. “You know how his disposition is. But when you rattle his cage, he blows up. That's what I like about him.”

Nonetheless, the racing world - and all of his connections - will be eagerly awaiting his first career start.

Powerline is the 8-5 morning-line favorite for Saturday's first race. Also in the field is another Flightline offspring, Greenwell, who sold for $500,000 and is the 2-1 second choice. The Good Life, trained by Brad Cox, is 3-1 in the morning-line odds.

Whit Beckman debuts a $600,000 purchase of his own with Let Em Know, and the field is rounded out by Jack's Golden Goal and longshot Johnny Hockey, named for the late NHL star Johnny Gaudreau.

It's a typical strong juvenile field for July in Saratoga, and it's an opening race fans won't want to miss.

“After the first race we'll have a little bit more clarity on six or seven horses,” Finley said the day before his colt's debut.


ENJOY THE RACE EVERYBODY!
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3 days ago
Paul Tuon 1 month ago
A NEW HOPE AND EXCITEMENT EMERGES!

Go Greenwell Go!


Disappointments are still fresh on my mind -- however, a new hope and excitment emerges on the scene hoping to carry the family banner to glory; and perhaps, helping erase some of the disappointments left by big sister and big brother (Thearavada and Phnom Penh).


YES, A NEW GENERATION OF HOPE AND EXCITEMENT HAS ARRIVED, AND HIS NAME IS GREENWELL.


Greenwell is a 2yo colt by Flightline out of multiple graded stakes winner (War Front mare) Cambodia, the dam of Thearavada and Phnom Penh.

Greenwell is Cambodia's 3rd foal; her 2nd foal is the 3yo colt Phnom Penh (by Medaglia d'Oro) and her first foal is the 4yo filly Thearavada (by Tapit).


YES! -- YES! -- YES! -- A NEW GENERATION OF HOPE AND EXCITEMENT HAS ARRIVED and I'm thrilled to death!


Go Greenwell Go!


Greenwell (KEESEP25 $500,000) is entered to run on Friday June 12, 2026, at Churchill Downs, race 5, in a 5 furlong, Dirt, Maiden Special Weight Open | 2 Year Olds | Purse: $120,000.


As you can tell, Greenwell was sold to Greenwell Thoroughbreds (Stable) at the Keenland September 2025 Yearling Sales for $500,000.


He is listed as the 4-1 2nd choice in the morning line behind the 7/2 Larry Rivelli-trained Never Sleep (OBSMAR26 $450,000), with the 9/2 3rd choice is the Steven M. Asmussen-trained Grand Yaupon (KEESEP25 $560,000).



Greenwell has 5 workouts:


31May26 CD 5f fst :59 1/5 B (1/26 Bullit)

24May26 CD 3f fst :36 1/5 Bg (3/20)

15May26 CD 4f fst :47 3/5 B (3/83)

26Apr26 Kee 4f fst :49 2/5 B (24/62)

19Apr26 Kee 3f fst :37 1/5 B (14/30)


Greenwell is facing 9 other 2yos with a wide open race as the morning line indicates and most of these are well-bred, high auction-price 2yos with Midnight Still (KEESEP25 $350,000), Mad Mo (OBSAPR26 $105,000), Balloteer (OBSMAR26 $475,000), War Ready (KEESEP25 $400,000), and Mo Misery (FTSAUG25 $675,000), to name a few.


All 10 2yos are first-time starters except the ML 10-1 longshot Steven M. Asmussen-trained War Ready (KEESEP25 $400,000) who had his debut race on April 28, 2026, at Churchill Downs, at 4 1/2 furlongs where he finished 3rd, beaten six lengths in a field of 6 2yo colts.


Here is an excerpt of an article by Candice Curtis of Horse Racing Nation.


Flightline's first starter debuts Friday (6/12/2026)


The week is headlined by Greenwell, a 2-year-old colt by Flightline out of Grade 2 winner Cambodia, the first entry for the highly anticipated sire's first crop.


Churchill Downs race 5 brings two notable 2-year-old debuts. Greenwell represents the most exciting bloodline combination as a son of undefeated Horse of the Year Flightline out of Grade 2 winner Cambodia. This marks Flightline's first entry as a freshman sire. The dam earned $859,000 and captured four graded stakes victories. Trained by Mark Casse for Greenwell Thoroughbreds, this colt is the 4-1 second choice with Jose Ortiz aboard from post 6 in the 10-horse field.


Also in the same race, Ditlihi debuts as a half-brother to Grade 3 winner Angel Nadeshiko, who earned $275,000. This 2-year-old colt by Dialed In is in for trainer John Ennis and owner Mark Arnold, with Danny Sheehy riding from post 7 at 20-1 morning-line odds.


[END EXCERPT]


As for Greenwell, he has a bright future:


Greenwell is an exciting 2-year-old colt representing the highly anticipated first crop of undefeated Horse of the Year Flightline.



The Sire: Flightline


* Background: Sired by Tapit, Flightline is widely regarded as one of the greatest racehorses of the modern era, retiring undefeated in six starts with a staggering overall market value of roughly $184 million.

* Stud Career: He began his stallion career at Lane's End Farm in Versailles, Kentucky, standing for an initial fee of $200,000. Greenwell is among the first of his offspring to reach the track as a freshman sire.



The Dam: Cambodia


* Background: Cambodia was a highly accomplished race mare by War Front, earning $859,000 in prize money and winning four graded stakes, including the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon Handicap and Pebbles Stakes.




Greenwell's Debut & Pedigree


* Connections: The colt is trained by Mark Casse for Greenwell Thoroughbreds and makes his debut at Churchill Downs June 12, 2026.

* Prospects: As the first major runner for his legendary sire, Greenwell carries a ton of bloodline buzz. Sired by a dirt racing phenomenon and out of a proven, graded-stakes winning turf mare, he combines brilliant speed with a versatile pedigree.


THE SKY IS THE LIMIT FOR THIS GUY!

GO GREENWELL GO!
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1 month ago
Paul Tuon 1 month ago
HAPPY BELMONT, EVERYBODY!

AND ENJOY THE BELMONT STAKES, EVERYBODY!




WE'LL DO A BELMONT PARLAY SPECIAL BY STARTING THE BELMONT DAY OFF WITH A BANG!


This is the first leg.



5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf). The Jaipur Stakes. Grade I.

For Three Year Olds And Upward.

Purse $500,000



Track: Saratoga
Race: 9

Horse: Reef Runner (ML 4-1)


Bet Reef Runner (ML 4-1) to win and place using double down betting strategy.




This is the 2nd leg.


MAKE SURE TO USE ALL OF THE ACCUMULATED MONEY ON THIS LEG!

7 Furlongs Open 3 Year Olds G1 Woody Stephens Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun

PURSE: $500,000

Track: Saratoga

Race: 10


Horse: Englishman (ML 3-1)


Bet Englishman (ML 3-1) to win and place using double down betting strategy.


No need to say anything as this is my "BEST BET" of the day!

I will say this:


THIS IS THE EASIEST MONEY YOU'LL EVER GOING TO GET ON THE BELMONT STAKES CARD OR ON ANY OTHER CARDS, FOR THAT MATTER!


ENGLISHMAN WILL TURN THE TABLES ON CRUDE VELOCITY IN THE WOODY STEPHENS STAKES!

NUFF SAID!!!



This is the 3rd and last leg -- the leg that pays the bills.



MAKE SURE TO USE ALL OF THE ACCUMULATED MONEY ON THIS LEG!


Track: Saratoga

Race: 13

Horse: Chief Wallabee (ML 3-1)


Here we go again breaking the parlay third-leg rule by using an exacta for the play.

Parlay's 3rd-leg rule states that you can only use win, place, and show bets, but we're using exacta, and therefore, breaking the 3rd-leg rule -- not a good idea!

With that said, let's have some fun!


In this 3rd and last leg -- the leg that pays the bills -- we'll do it differently by using half of the accumulated money from the previous legs for the win/place bets and then using the other half for the exacta play.

In other words, divide the accumulated money from the previous legs by 2 and play it according to the following.


For the win/place play:

Bet Chief Wallabee (ML 3-1) to win, place using double down betting strategy.


For the exacta play:

Put Chief Wallabee (ML 3-1) on top of two horses [Powershift (ML 12-1) and Vitruvian Man (ML 30-1)], making a key or partial wheel exacta play.



ENJOY THE BELMONT, EVERYONE!



SEE YOU ALL IN NOVEMBER -- IN THE BREEDERS' CUP!


UPDATE: June 7, 2026

IT WAS A GREAT BELMONT WEEKEND OVERALL DESPITE MY BELMONT PLAY ON CHIEF WALLABEE DIDN'T PAN OUT THE WAY I WOULD HAVE LIKE!

NONETHELESS, IT WAS A VERY PROFITABLE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ON MY BEST BET OF THE DAY ON ENGLISHMAN!

I have been following Englishman since his debut race last September 2025, in which, he broke his maiden in a spectacular fashion.


Here is an excerpt of what I wrote back then:


ANOTHER EXCITING TWO-YEAR-OLD CAUGHT MY EYES!

THE YEAR OF TWO-YEAR-OLDS: 2025

A Flashy two-year-old colt Englishman delivered last week's most impressive performance with a 97 Beyer Speed Figure in his debut at Churchill Downs on Friday September 19, 2025.

Englishman (by Maxfield - In It for the Gold, by Speightstown) overcame early trouble to win by 7 1/4 lengths in a seven-furlong maiden special weight on dirt as the 2-1 second choice behind the Steve Asmussen-trained 9-5 favorite Tagermeen in a 10-horse field, with his running comment noting he "set pace ... drew off upper, wrapped up late."

He is a $400,000 yearling purchase and is trained by Cherie DeVaux.

"We were excited to get him started," DeVaux said on Thursday September 25, one week following her two-year-old colt Englishman huge win. "He's very talented. We don't really ask a whole lot of them in the morning, so when they go out and do something like that, kind of on their own ability, so impressive."

She hasn't decided on what's next for Englishman. "We're trying to develop him along, see if he can handle the two turns. And that's what we'd like to do next, is a one-turn mile. So probably try and wait for Churchill. We're not going to try to squeeze him into the Breeders' Cup. His future's in front of him."

He's one of about 45 juveniles in DeVaux's barn. "This is my biggest two-year-old crop by far," she said. Overall, she has about 115 horses in training.

His dam In It for the Gold (by Speightstown - All Due Respect, by Value Plus) took six tries to break her maiden at Aqueduct (November 2017).

She competed all of her other five tries at Belmont Park and Saratoga, running against the very best horses of her generation.

After breaking her maiden, she was injured while training in December 2017 and they decided to retire her to the breeding shed the following year (January and February 2018 breeding season).

Looking at In It for the Gold's extended pedigree I see her dam is by Value Plus who is now a 24-year-old horse that was born in 2001 and raced from 2003 to 2005.

Value Plus was sired by Unbridled's Song out of the Rollin On Over mare Roll Over Baby.

He was trained by Todd A. Pletcher.

I remember vividly that Value Plus was very highly touted prior to his 2yo debut, due in part that he was a $1.1 million Keenland yearling purchase and was being trained by Todd Fletcher.

Value Plus rewarded his followers (myself included) when he won his debut in July 2003 at Saratoga as a 2/5 very heavy favorite.

This reminds me of Theravada who has an impeccable bloodline but was cut short of her racing career due to soundness issue.

In It for the Gold and Theravada have something in common -- and that is, a very short racing career due to soundness issues and they both have impeccable breeding.

To make a long story short: Englishman is a by-product of impeccable bloodline and he ran true to his impeccable breeding.

[END EXCERPT]


WOW! -- ENGLISHMAN!

HE GOT A BEYER SPEED FIGURE OF 115 -- YES, 115!

FANTASTIC! -- A STAR IN THE MAKING!

HE TIED THE TRACK RECORD FOR THE SEVEN-FURLONG WOODY STEPHENS STAKES!

1/4 - 21.98
1/2 - 43.97
3/4 - 1:07.56

Finish-1:20.4 (tied a 48-year-old course record set by Derby Creek Road in 1978).

Very impressive!

I'm very excited about Englishman's future, and hopefully they stretch him out to 1 1/16 in the Jim Dandy Stakes on 07/25/2026 at Saratoga Race Course.

However, since Englishman is trained by Cherie Devaux, who also trains the Belmont Stakes winner Golden Tempo, I'm not holding my breathe for that to happen since Cheried Devaux already said that Golden Tempo is being targeted the Jim Dandy Stakes as well.

Unless something changes regarding Golden Tempo, Englishman is unlikely for the Jim Dandy, and that leaves the Gr I H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (August 29), 7-furlong dirt sprint for 3-year-olds, as the logical choice for Englishman.

As for Golden Tempo:

Belmont Stakes winner Golden Tempo will return to his Keeneland base before pointing back to Saratoga for the Grade 2, $500,000 Jim Dandy on Aug. 1 and the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers on Aug. 29, trainer Cherie DeVaux said.

"He's going to go back to Keeneland tomorrow and we're probably going to prep for the Jim Dandy there and then we'll keep him up here for the Travers," DeVaux said.

"He prepped for all his races at Keeneland, and he'll be coming off of a bit of a layoff into the Jim Dandy, so you want to keep the track that he's had the most success (training) at.

Then we go from the Jim Dandy to the Travers; it's just going to be maintenance works. It's a little bit easier on him, and we try to take out as many unknowns as we can. We'll just follow what's worked so far."
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1 month ago
Paul Tuon 2 months ago
HAPPY PREAKNESS, EVERYBODY!

AND ENJOY THE PREAKNESS!



WE'LL APPROACH THIS YEAR'S PREAKNESS STAKES DIFFERENTLY, BETTING STRATEGY-WISE!

WE'LL DO A LONGSHOT PARLAY SPECIAL WHERE ALL OF OUR LEGS ARE LONGSHOTS, EXCEPT THE SECOND LEG.

THIS MEANS THE 3RD AND LAST LEG IS A LONGSHOT PLAY!

IN DOING SO, WE BREAK THE PARLAY'S 3RD AND LAST LEG RULE BY PICKING A LONGSHOT!

THE PARLAY'S 3RD-LEG RULE STATES THAT THE HORSE MUST BE A HEAVY FAVORITE - THE HORSE MUST BE A CINCH!

BUT WE'RE BREAKING THAT RULE BY PICKING A LONGSHOT IN OUR PARLAY'S 3RD-LEG -- IT'S A NO, NO - NOT A GOOD IDEA (for the most part)!


WITH THAT SAID, LET'S HAVE SOME FUN!



LET'S START THE PREAKNESS OFF WITH A BANG!



This is the first leg.



6 Furlongs Fillies and Mares 3 Year Olds And Up Skipat Stakes

PURSE: $125,000

Track: Laurel

Race: 4

Horse: Benedetta (ML 8-1)


Bet Benedetta (ML 8-1) to win and place and show using double down betting strategy.

Yes, this qualifies as one of my Preakness Day longshot plays.

Benedetta (ML 8-1) is a OBSMAR23 $750,000 Sale and her best race came against a super freak horse named Two Sharp a year ago in the Winning Colors Stakes where she finished a very sharp second to that horse, ahead of a highly regarded and talented Hope Road (trained by Bob Baffert).

Another one that she beat was a very good horse named Irish Maxima at Mahony Vally Racecourse in November (2024).

If you read her past performance, she ran against very tough group of horses, including Kopion, Ways and Means, Halina's Forte, Taxed, Haulin Ice, Justique, R Disaster, Scylla (who won the Breeders' Cup Distaff 2025), Hope Road, and Two Sharp.



HERE IS AN EXCEPT OF WHAT I WROTE ABOUT TWO SHARP AFTER SHE WON THE WINNING COLORS STAKES ON MAY 26, 2025:


STAR SPRINTER FILLY IN THE MAKING!

A NEW AND UPCOMING STRINT STAR FILLY TWO SHARP WAS SHARP IN 1:08.75



Two Sharp, trained by Phil Bauer, won the $250,000 Winning Colors (G3) at Churchill Downs on Monday May 26, 2025 (Memorial Day) by 3½ lengths while clocking six furlongs in a swift 1:08.75.

Two Sharp set fast fractions of 21.14 (for quarter-mile), 43.99 (for half-mile), 56.15 (for five furlongs) enroute to a swift six furlongs in 1:08.75.

Note that her half-mile time is the fastest half-mile in the race that dates to 2004.

Even with that kind of half-mile time at Churchill Downs she still won comfortably against a very solid group of horses, particularly Hope Road and Brightwork.


Very impressive!


Two Sharp broke alertly from the outside gate (7) in a field reduced to seven after two scratches, and the 4yo filly (by Twirling Candy out of Double Sharp, by Distorted Humor) led every step of the way to win comfortably over a 20-1 longshot Benedetta.

Two Sharp was sent off as the 9/5 second choice behind the 4/5 favorite Hope Road who finished a distance third, while Brightwork finished a distance fourth.


[END EXCERPT]


With that background in mind, I'm very excited about Benedetta in this race, and I think she will win at huge price, perhaps, at around 5-1 despite a morning line of 8-1.

I think she will go off at 4-1 or 5-1, and anything higher than that, consider it as a "GIFT" from the Preakness crowd.

I know I will take it as a gift and dive head first on her.


I will say this:


THIS IS THE EASIEST MONEY YOU'LL EVER GOING TO GET ON THE PREAKNESS CARD OR ON ANY OTHER CARDS, FOR THAT MATTER!


The play:


Bet Benedetta (ML 8-1) to win and place and show using double down betting strategy.


For me, with a $500 budget for the whole day, I will go $50 to win, $100 to place, and $200 to show: $350 total with $150 left for the remaining races, particularly the 2nd and third leg of this longshot parlay special (if Benedetta fails to show up - but I think she will show up and win this race).




This is the 2nd leg.


MAKE SURE TO USE ALL OF THE ACCUMULATED MONEY ON THIS LEG!


1 1/16 Miles Open 3 Year Olds Sir Barton S. sponsored by Connolly Family Foundation to Benefit The Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance

PURSE: $100,000


Track: Laurel

Race: 6

Horse: Reagan's Honor (ML 7-5)


Bet Reagan's Honor (ML 7-5) to win and place using double down betting strategy.




This is the 3rd and last leg -- the leg that pays the bills.



MAKE SURE TO USE ALL OF THE ACCUMULATED MONEY ON THIS LEG!


1 3/16 Miles Open 3 Year Olds G1 Preakness S.

PURSE: $2,000,000


Track: Laurel

Race: 13


Horses: Iron Honor (ML 9-2) and Napoleon Solo (ML 8-1)


Bet Iron Honor (ML 9-2) to win, place, show using double down betting strategy.

Bet Napoleon Solo (ML 8-1) win, place, show using double down betting strategy.


MAKE SURE TO USE ALL OF THE ACCUMULATED MONEY ON THIS LEG!


Yes, that is right: Betting two horses at the same time to win, place, show.

The best-case scenario for this bet is for a "DEAD-HEAT" for the win between Iron Honor and Napoleon Solo -- wouldn't that be awesome?



ENJOY THE PREAKNESS, EVERYONE!


FUN! FUN! AND LOTS OF FUN!


SEE YOU ALL IN THREE WEEKS IN THE BELMONT STAKES!
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2 months ago
Paul Tuon 2 months ago
PREAKNESS WEEK THIS WEEK!

HAPPY PREAKNESS WEEK, EVERYBODY!


It looks like a field of 13 horses as of this writing (Monday May 11, 2026), and once again - as it was with the Derby a couple of weeks ago - it's a wide open-race.

Speaking of the Derby, it lived up to my expectations, and the result was within my pre-race anticipation, but due to my affinity for Further Ado, I played Further Ado underneath the field in the exacta.

My other option, (pre-race wise), was to play Renegade in place of Further Ado in the same exacta but I was un-willing to play both Further Ado and Renegade which have cost me double amount to $80.

So I had to choose between Further Ado and Renegade to put as the second-place horse in the exacta (with the field on top), and Further Ado didn't perform as I expected -- but Renegade did perform according to my expectation to complete the $2.00 exacta with Golden Tempo over Renegade that paid $278.86.

Golden Tempo, a 23-1 longshot, defeated the co-favorite Renegade by a neck, creating a high payout for that combination.

Needless to say, I came out of the Derby empty-handed and looking forward to the Preakness for redemption.


HAPPY PREAKNESS WEEK, EVERYBODY!
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2 months ago
Paul Tuon 2 months ago

IT'S THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, EVERYBODY!

MY ADRENALINE IS RUNNING FULL BORE!


HAPPY DERBY EVERYBODY!




LET'S START THE DERBY WEEKEND OFF WITH A BANG!


THE FRIDAY KENTUCKY OAKS DAY


This is the first leg.



5 1/2 Furlongs Fillies and Mares 3 Year Olds And Up G2 Unbridled Sidney S. presented by TwinSpires

PURSE: $500,000

Track: Churchill Downs

Race: 7

Horse: Shoot It True (ML 6-1)


So bet Shoot It True (ML 6-1) to win and place and show using double down betting strategy.

Yes, this qualifies as one of my Friday Oaks Day longshot plays.



This is the 2nd leg.



1 1/16 Miles Open 4 Year Olds And Up G2 Alysheba S. presented by U.S. Army

PURSE: $750,000


Track: Churchill Downs

Race: 9

Horse: East Avenue (ML 12-1)


Bet East Avenue (ML 12-1) to win and place and show using double down betting strategy.

Yes, this also qualifies as one of my Friday Oaks Day longshot plays.



This is the 3rd and last leg -- the leg that pays the bills.



MAKE SURE TO USE ALL OF THE ACCUMULATED MONEY ON THIS LEG!


1 1/8 Miles Fillies and Mares 4 Year Olds And Up G3 Modesty S. presented by Veritas Prime

PURSE: $500,000


Track: Churchill Downs

Race: 10


Horse: Gezora (FR) (ML 4-5)


Bet Gezora (FR) (ML 4-5) to win.


MAKE SURE TO USE ALL OF THE ACCUMULATED MONEY ON THIS LEG!





ENJOY THE OAKS FRIDAY, EVERYONE! -- DON'T FORGET TO COME BACK THE NEXT DAY -- SATURDAY -- AND DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN!


FUN! FUN! AND LOTS OF FUN!





LET'S START THE DERBY SATURDAY WHERE WE LEFT OFF FRIDAY WITH A BANG!



A "BANG!" IS CORRECT WITH GEZORA (ML 4-5) AS THE THIRD AND LAST LEG FOR THE FRIDAY PARLAY SPECIAL!



NOW WE TURN TO SATURDAY PARLAY SPECIAL: Three legs.



This is the first leg.


1 1/16 Miles Open 3 Year Olds And Up MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

PURSE: $120,000


Track: Churchill Downs

Race: 1


Horse: Winston Ave (ML 9-2)


Winston Ave should start us off with a bang!


This is one of the two easiest money you'll ever going to get on the Churchill Downs card this Sartuday May 2, 2026, despite being on the outside post 9 and as the 9/2 third choice behind the 3-1 favorite Powershift who is the likely winner but I'm going for a mild upset.

The other being Englishman, race 8.


Bet Winston Ave (ML 9-2) to win, place, show using double down betting strategy.





This is the 2nd leg.


1 Mile Open 3 Year Olds And Up ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING : $80,000

PURSE: $134,000


Track: Churchill Downs

Race: 3

Horse: Vibe (ML 6-1 longshot)




Bet Vibe (ML 6-1) to win and place using all of the accumulated money from previous legs to make it as a double down betting strategy.



This is the 3rd and last leg -- the leg that pays the bills.


MAKE SURE TO USE ALL OF THE ACCUMULATED MONEY ON THIS LEG!


1 Mile Open 3 Year Olds G2 Pat Day Mile S. presented by SAP

PURSE: $750,000


Track: Churchill Downs

Race: 8

Horse: Englishman (ML 3-1 favorite)




Bet Englishman (ML 3-1) to win using all of the accumulated money from previous legs to end the two-day "Friday and Saturday Parlay Special".

Nobody is going to beat Englishman this Saturday.

This is the easiest 3/1 money you'll ever going to get on the card at Churchill Downs or at any other racetracks on this Derby Saturday May 2, 2026.





ENJOY THE DERBY, EVERYONE!


SEE YOU ALL IN TWO WEEKS IN THE PREAKNESS!
114 views 0 Reply
2 months ago
Paul Tuon 2 months ago
DERBY WEEK THIS WEEK!

HAPPY DERBY WEEK EVERYBODY!


The post position for the 2026 Kentucky Derby is set, and it looks like a wide-open race.

My betting strategy for this year's Derby is very simple, and that is, keying the likely lukewarm favorite Further Ado to finish second in the exacta play.

This is a very sound strategy with this kind of race where all of the horses in the field are very competitive and wide open, and anyone can win this race with a huge odd.

Yes, HUGE odd, indeed -- which this strategy calls for in order to make a descend return on the investment.

I used this same strategy way back in 2009 when it was a wide-open race with no outstanding favorite with Friesan Fire who went off as the 7-2 favorite and Pioneer of the Nile went off as the 6-1 second choice.

Because I didn't like Friesan Fire in that race, I chose Pioneer of the Nile to use on the bottom single and back-wheel it with the field in an exacta play.

In other words, I put the field on top of Pioneer of the Nile in the exacta play, and it paid like $1,900 for a $2 exacta (if I remember correctly).

It cost me $38 for the exacta back-wheel and won $1,900 for the play.

I will do exactly the same thing in this race by putting Further Ado in the bottom of the exacta play with the field on top and probably will cost me $38 as well (if there is no scratches) for the race.

In my opinion, Further Ado is in a class by himself with others just a tad below him, making this betting strategy very sound since the best horse doesn't always win in the Ky Derby due to a lot of factors, traffic is the primary factor that makes a best horse lose.

I think Further Ado is the best horse in this year's Ky Derby, but the best horse doesn't always win the Ky Derby, so I will play him to finish second instead and hope for a very longshot to win this race, making a potential HUGE exacta payoff.

In the 2009, Pioneer of the Nile (6-1) finished second to Mine that Bird (50-1), making a huge exacta payoff.

I am hoping that same scenario will play out in this year's Ky Derby as well.

The play:

Exacta: Field over Further Ado.


ENJOY THE DERBY EVERYBODY!
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2 months ago
Paul Tuon 4 months ago
LOOK OUT FOR THE UPCOMING DRAIN THE CLOCK 2YO OF 2026 !!!

I'M LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS $1.1 MILLION DRAIN THE CLOCK COLT THIS SUMMER!


The OBS March 2026 Two-Year-Old In-Training Sale


The unquestioned king of the under-tack shows this year (2026) was Gainesway's first-crop stallion Drain the Clock, who saw his offspring post the fastest times at their respective distances for three straight days.

Those strong showings on the track are translating into top results in the ring as Hip 132, a chestnut colt by Drain the Clock who worked in :9 4/5, sold to Pedro Lanz, agent for KAS Stables for $1.1 million.

The colt is out of the Freud mare Making a Point and showcased the same fluid movement during his breeze that is quickly becoming a trademark of the sire.

"I've been here since the prep and I've noticed (the Drain the Clocks) are fast and can sustain speed," Lanz said.

"They are athletes, they are incredible athletes. When you see them, they look sharp. And I think they can go the distance. These horses' strides are very long and they sustain their speed. I have three-four that I like in this sale."

Lanz added the colt would head to the barn of trainer Brad Cox.

"This colt is a beautiful physical," Lanz said.

"If we wanted this horse, we knew we were going to have to fight for him."



"FIGHT?"

Sounds like Drain the Clock in races.



Yes, Drain the Clock was a fighter with his signature win in the 2021 Woody Stephens (G1) over an even faster and sprint champion Jackie's Warrior in a fast time of 1:22.27 for seven furlongs, earning Drain the Clock of Beyer Speed Figure of 97.

Running Beyer Speed Figure of 95 or higher is very hard to do in sprint races and Drain the Clock did it against a world-class champion in Jackie's Warrior in the 2021 Woody Stehpens Stakes (G1).

He won other stakes races as well and most of them were very fast.

As for this particular high-price two-year-old son, the sky is the limit, and I can't wait to see him on the racetracks -- especially having trainer Brad Cox as his trainer.

OH, BOY! -- IT'S GOING TO BE A FUN SUMMER!

BRING IT ON!!!
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4 months ago
Paul Tuon 5 months ago
News Headline!!!

Hedge fund manager predicts Bitcoin to $50M


Tuesday February 17, 2026

Hedge fund manager’s wild Bitcoin prediction

In an interview with Phil Rosen, EMJ Capital CEO Eric Jackson has projected that Bitcoin could reach $50 million per coin by 2041.

At current prices, that would represent roughly a 74,527% increase.

His thesis is based on what he describes as a long-term collateral transformation in global finance. He argued that Bitcoin could evolve into what he calls “neutral global collateral.”

“This isn’t just digital gold, this isn’t some Beanie Babies,” Jackson said.

“It is actually going to be a dominant way that we borrow against to do things.”

Rather than replacing existing systems outright, Jackson believes Bitcoin could operate beneath them, serving as a foundational asset that global markets borrow against.

However, he stressed that this vision depends on Bitcoin maintaining its apolitical character and functioning as a neutral reserve asset.

To illustrate the concept, he pointed to gold’s historical role in global finance.

“The thing that you hear most about is, ‘oh it’s digital gold,’ ‘is this going to be like the new version of gold?’,” Jackson said.

“And you can say, ‘well how big is gold today? How many central banks around the world own it? How many sovereigns own it?’ So, could Bitcoin be as big as gold one day? That seems like a safe assumption.”


Bitcoin's journey to $50 million

Jackson’s $50 million forecast is tied to what he calls “Vision 2041,” a long-term framework built around the size and structure of global sovereign debt markets.

He explains that global finance has historically evolved through different forms of collateral, and the next shift could center on Bitcoin.


He traced the evolution of financial systems from gold-backed monetary regimes to offshore dollar markets that expanded in the 1960s.

According to Jackson, the Eurodollar system, which is a network of U.S. dollar deposits held outside the United States, played a key role in shaping modern global liquidity and today’s debt-driven structure.

The Eurodollar market consists of U.S. dollar-denominated deposits held in banks outside the United States, originally in Europe but now globally. These deposits are not subject to U.S. banking regulations or Federal Reserve oversight.

Over time, the Eurodollar market became a major source of offshore dollar liquidity, supporting international lending, trade finance, and capital flows.

Jackson believes Bitcoin could eventually take on a similar role, replacing the Eurodollar as a neutral collateral asset underpinning global borrowing.


He described Bitcoin as “much superior” collateral because it is digital, scarce, "apolitical" and operates outside central bank control.

However, he clarified that this shift would not necessarily displace the U.S. dollar or Treasuries directly.

Instead, Bitcoin could function alongside existing systems, as a foundational reserve asset in a future global financial architecture.

[End of Article]


I could've told Eric Jackson way back in 2009 when I first discovered Bitcoin and wrote about it in great detail.

Great! -- Eric Jackson and I share the same belief on Bitcoin's future.

Long Live Bitcoin!

Long Live Bitcoin!

Long Live Bitcoin!




Here is a related article that seems to think that Bitcoin will reach $1 million (not $50 million) mark in 10 years from 2026:


Bitwise CIO says Bitcoin could hit $1M in $38T store-of-value market


March 10, 2026


[Preface: Hougan says the total "store-of-value market" could reach $121 trillion (from its current $38T) over the next 10 years if the store-of-value market continues to expand at the same pace, and Bitcoin would need to capture only about 17% to reach $1 million.]




Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, Matt Hougan, said Bitcoin's price could reach $1 million if it captures a sizable share of the $38 trillion global store-of-value market.

In a recent memo, Hougan said the market has expanded significantly over time, yet investors still assume the store-of-value market will remain static.


Matt Hougan says Bitcoin competes with Gold in the store-of-value market


Hougan explains that investors have always turned to gold to protect their wealth, and many now see Bitcoin as a suitable alternative because it is scarce, durable, and well-known worldwide.


The CIO estimated that gold accounts for about $36 trillion of the $38 trillion store-of-value market, while Bitcoin holds about $1.4 trillion (less than 4% market share). From this point, Hougan says many analysts compare Bitcoin to gold because it also allows investors to store wealth outside of traditional financial systems and has a scarce supply of only 21 million coins.


But unlike Gold, Bitcoin exists digitally and can be broken down into extremely small units, allowing investors to move it quickly and easily across the internet.


Yet even with these qualities, people struggle to believe in $1 million per Bitcoin because it would take a miracle for the coin to capture more than half of the store-of-value market anytime in the near future.


However, Hougan says the store-of-value market will not remain the same, as global wealth continues to expand and more people seek ways to protect their money.




Bitcoin price could reach $1 million as more people use it to store wealth



In his memo, Matt Hougan said markets that preserve wealth can expand faster than investors expect, citing that gold's total value rose from $2.5 trillion in 2004 to about $40 trillion today (March 10, 2026). This means the value compounded at 13% year after year as demand worldwide grew.


For the past two decades, investors have poured more money into store-of-value assets because government debt has increased in many parts of the world, wars have broken out, and central banks have introduced loose monetary policies that have kept interest rates low.


Hougan says the total market could reach $121 trillion over the next 10 years if the store-of-value market continues to expand at the same pace, and Bitcoin would need to capture only about 17% to reach $1 million.


Hougan says investors will only accept that Bitcoin can move from its current 4% to 17% if they focus on how quickly adoption has increased in recent years.


More institutional investors have brought new money into Bitcoin over the past few years, and the coin's long-term volatility has declined when compared to its initial years.


Trends in portfolio allocation also reflect changing attitudes. For instance, in previous years, even a 1% allocation to Bitcoin by professional investors was viewed as aggressive. However, there is now an increasing trend of institutions allocating 5% to Bitcoin in diversified portfolios. Even a small increase in overall allocation levels can generate high demand.


Nevertheless, Hougan identifies some risks that may affect these predictions.

First, the store-of-value market may not continue to rise at the pace it has over the last 20 years.

Secondly, the economic factors that contributed to gold's rise in value may not recur.


Another possibility is that Bitcoin may not reach the market share necessary to hit these price targets. Adoption may not be rapid enough, or investors may prefer traditional store-of-value assets like gold rather than traditional alternatives.


At the same time, however, Hougan also warns that these projections may not even be conservative enough. If there is growing concern about government debt or currency stability in the future, investors may require even higher returns from assets known to hold up well in the long run. Then, the growth of the global store-of-value market could accelerate even faster.


If such a scenario comes to pass, Bitcoin's market share will exceed the expected 17% and its value will be further elevated. For Hougan, the important factor is not the price target but how the market's framework changes with the possibility of further market growth.


In that context, Hougan explains that analysts who use a fixed market size to determine Bitcoin's value may miss an important part of the picture. If the store-of-value market continues to grow and Bitcoin continues to increase its share of that market, it becomes clear how it is possible to reach $1 million per Bitcoin [in 10 years from now].




Here is another related article that seems to think that Bitcoin will reach $1 million mark by 2032:


Monday March 23, 2026

Anthony Scaramucci sets $1 million Bitcoin target by 2032, explains why he's buying now: “You can't be in the market like me for 38 years and ....”



The $1 Million BTC Target


Appearing on The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast with Scott Melker, Scaramucci stated that Skybridge Capital has set a $1 million price target for Bitcoin by 2032, factoring in the 2028 halving event and the 4-year cycle.


“So if you get the opportunity to buy it here, then buy it,” Scaramucci added.


Scaramucci maintains that Bitcoin's 4-year cycle remains very much intact, with the current pullback driven by long-term holders, those who've held BTC for 15 years or so, finally cashing out after it hit the $100,000 milestone.


Scaramucci Admitted Getting It Wrong Last Year 2025


Scaramucci stayed bullish on Bitcoin for most of last year (2025), maintaining his $150,000 year-end price target right up until September (2025).


He later conceded in a Benzinga interview that he got it wrong, overlooking the “massive” sell-off by Bitcoin whales.


The former White House Communications Director revealed previously that 70% of his wealth is tied up in the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin.
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5 months ago
Paul Tuon 7 months ago
LAST TIME TO ENJOY THE YEAR OF TWO-YEAR-OLDS!

DID I PROCLAIM THAT 2025 IS THE YEAR OF TWO-YEAR-OLDS?


YES, THAT IS CORRECT: 2025 IS THE YEAR OF TWO-YEAR-OLDS, BOTH THOROUGHBRED AND HARNESS!


THE YEAR OF TWO-YEAR-OLDS -- OH BOY, IS IT EVER?


With that said, let's close out the two-year-old year "early" with a "BANG!"


I KNOW THERE ARE STILL TWO-YEAR-OLD RACES TO COME BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR WITH RACES LIKE:

The Remsen at Aqueduct next week December 6 (2025) and then there are two-year-old races out west in California at Los Alamitos Racecourse beginning Friday, Dec. 5 and continue through Sunday, Dec. 14 to close out the outstanding YEAR OF TWO-YEAR-OLDS!

The last two two-year-old stakes races are the G2, $200,000-guaranteed Starlet for 2-year-old fillies at 1 1/16 miles on Saturday, Dec. 6 (2025) and one week later – Saturday, Dec. 13 - the G2, $200,000-guaraneed Los Alamitos Futurity at 1 1/16 miles for 2-year-old colts.


THAT IS IT!!!


SO LONG THE YEAR OF TWO-YEAR-OLDS 2025!


HAPPY THE YEAR OF TWO-YEAR-OLDS, EVERYBODY!




BUT PERSONALLY, I DON'T THINK THOSE THREE RACES WILL GENERATE OUTSTANDING TWO-YEAR-OLDS OF 2025 (in my opinion).


SO WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT THE REAL TWO-YEAR-OLDS OF 2025 ARE RUNNING THIS WEEKEND AT CHURCHILL DOWNS!

AND I'M VERY EXCITED TO SEE THEM RUN THIS WEEKEND!


Oh, grief! -- I have to wait until next summer for two-year-old races to kick in full gear!


IT'S A BUMMER!


Anyhow, let's use the parlay betting strategy and call it as:


THE YEAR-END TWO-YEAR-OLD YEAR PARLAY SPECIAL!


Since it is a two-year-old year-end special, I will make an exception to the three-leg rule and make it as a four-leg parlay special.


1st leg:


6 1/2 Furlongs Open 2 Year Olds Ed Brown Stakes
PURSE: $225,000


Date: Saturday November 29, 2025
Track: Churchill Downs
Race: 4
Surface: Dirt

Horse: Boyd (ML 1-1 favorite)


Bet Boyd to win.



2nd leg:


1 Mile Open 2 Year Olds ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING : $100,000

PURSE: $127,000

Date: Saturday November 29, 2025
Track: Churchill Downs
Race: 5
Surface: dirt

Horse: It's Our Time (ML 1-1 favorite)


Bet It's Our Time to win.






3rd leg:


1 1/16 Miles Open 2 Year Olds G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes
PURSE: $400,000

Date: Saturday November 29, 2025
Track: Churchill Downs
Race: 10
Surface: dirt


Horse: Further Ado (ML 7-5 favorite)



Bet Further Ado (ML 7-5) to win.


Put all of the accumulated money on him because he is going to win this race in a romp, in my opinion.




4th and final leg:


7 Furlongs Open 2 Year Olds MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
PURSE: $120,000

Date: Saturday November 29, 2025
Track: Churchill Downs
Race: 10
Surface: dirt


Horse: Dragones (ML 3-1 second choice behind 5-2 favorite Cannoneer)



Bet Dragones (ML 3-1) to win, place using double down betting strategy.


Put all of the accumulated money on him because I think he has a very good chance to be at least 2nd (if not win).


Note: I broke the "parlay rule" by picking a longshot in the last leg, the 4th leg.

Well, not really a longshot but a second choice in the morning line.

But still I broke the "parlay rule", nonetheless.


I am breaking the "parlay rule" because I think Dragones qualifies as a "cinch" horse based on my handicapping prowess and expertise.

This is one of my rare occasions that I break the last leg "parlay rule."

You should never break the last-leg parlay rule because it is very dangerous as longshots like Dragones might well run like a longshot horse causing our accumulated money to go down the drain.

You won't see me breaking the last-leg parlay rule very often and this one is the rare exception one.

With that said, I think Dragones will win this race like a "cinch" horse would; and therefore, I feel very confident in using Dragones as the last leg of this parlay special year-end play.


HAPPY THE YEAR OF TWO-YEAR-OLDS, EVERYBODY!
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7 months ago
 
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