Paul Tuon
Hey, people! -- I am feeling lonely commenting by myself. Join me in posting comments and replies.

Open to all topics!!!


To those of you who are horse racing fans I give out my personal picks regularly when I see opportunities.

To see my personal picks login to your account to get a link to my picks.

Paul Tuon 3 days ago
THERAVADA'S JOURNEY!

SENTIMENTAL FAVORITE THERAVADA IS ENTERED BUT NOT LIKELY TO GET IN !



Sentimental favorite Theravada is entered to run in a 1 1/16 miles turf race for Fillies and Mares 3 Year Olds And Up MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT Purse: $120,000 at Churchill Downs on Sunday May 27, 2025 (race 6).

Theravada makes her third career start for trainer Rusty Arnold. Theravada is a 3-year-old Tapit filly is out of Grade 2 winner Cambodia, who earned $859,000 with four graded-stakes wins.

In her most recent start on April 12 (2025) at Keeneland [in a 1 1/16 miles turf race for 3-Year-Old Fillies], she finished seventh, beaten 9 1/4 lengths.


[Check out my detail description on this thread about 7 or 8 posts down titled: "THERAVADA JOURNEY: THE TRAIL OF SENTIMENTAL FAVORITE THERAVADA !", describing the reasons she lost that race]


She was bred by her owners Don Robinson and Allen Schubert of Winter Quarter Farm.

She'll be ridden by Luis Saez in this 1 1/16-mile turf maiden special weight if she draws into the field as she is currently sitting on number 15 in a field that is limited to just 12 runners.

So she will need at least three defections in order for her to get into the race; otherwise, she'll have to wait for another entry in the near future.

Judging by past history on turf races in North America, particularly races in Kentucky and New York, on average there should be at least three scratches by the deadline.

This means that Theravada has a good chance of drawing into the field, especially if the turf is a little soft and still stay on turf.

So don't count her out just yet and be ready to take the plunge if she draws in.

That's what I'm anticipating on doing this Sunday.

It's a wide open race with Theravada is the second choice (ML at 4-1) behind the morning line favorite in that race at 3-1 by a 3yo filly named Oak Alley (post 10 -- not any better than Theravada's post position-wise).


Bet Theravada (ML 4-1) to win, place, show using double down betting strategy -- however, personally, I will only bet her to win.

With that said, I think she will win this race and I'm planning on gluing my eyes on the TV set the whole time the race is on.


BRING IT ON!!!

I'M VERY EXCITED FOR THIS SUNDAY AND I CAN'T WAIT UNTIL THEN!

BRING IT ON!!!
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3 days ago
Paul Tuon 4 days ago
CANTERBURY EXCITEMENT!


CANTERBURY EXCITEMENT BEGINS THIS WEEKEND!




Canterbury Park begins its 2025 racing season this weekend -- so I encourage you all to support Canterbury Park [I really mean support horse racing] by betting on Canterbury races through your simulcast signals at your racetrack.

Betting on Canterbury races whenever you can means supporting horse racing in general -- and at the same time you may even get some enjoyment out of it.

I know I do get the enjoyment of it because I know when I bet on small racetracks I support horse racing.

In other words, I get a lot more enjoyment betting on small tracks than betting on big tracks, knowing that by betting on small tracks I support horse racing even more. [I don't know about you all -- but that's just me and that's how I feel!]

So by all means, play Canterbury races as much as you can.

If you need some guidance on Canterbury races I urge you all to follow our very own Angela Hermann -- she might give you winners meanwhile.



ENJOY CANTERBURY RACES EVERYBODY!
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4 days ago
Paul Tuon 5 days ago
PREAKNESS AFTER THOUGHT!

HOPE YOU ENJOY THE PREAKNESS!


It wasn't a surprise to most racing fans that the best horse won the Preakness, and that includes myself as well who actually played against the best horse in the field by betting on a 12-1 longshot American Promise.

The big surprise on my part is that American Promise didn't live up to my pre-race expectation and he performed very poorly two races in a row now with no apparent excuse by finishing next to last of nine, beaten by 18 lengths.

That was a big surprise on my part and now I know the truth that American Promise is not as good as I thought he was.

That is horse racing!

You're wrong more times than you're right and this one is a clear example of the nature of horse racing.

With that said, the Belmont in three weeks is next and I'll have to find another horse to play.




EXCITEMENT OVERSEAS!


Overshadowed by the excitement of the Preakness this past Saturday [May 17] quite a few races overseas went unnoticed by racing fans, particularly those in the US.

In Ireland three very high-price, well-bred 2yo colts made their debut in their respective races and all three won in spectacular fashion.

Italy (by Wootten Basset x Galileo) trained by Aiden O'Brien won his six-furlong debut race impressively at Leophardstown (Ireland) on Saturday May 17, and O'Brien said, “He could come back here [Leophardstown] for the Tyros.”

Or he could be going to England (to the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot in June 2025), and after that he could go to the Futurity Stakes (at Curragh in Aug), according to O'Brien.

Coventry Stakes
Group – 2
Course – Royal Ascot
Race Type – Flat
Distance – 6 Furlongs (Turf)
Ages – 2yo's only
Early-June 2025.


Tyros Stakes
Group – 3
Course – Leopardstown
Race Type – Flat
Distance – 7 Furlongs (Turf)
Ages – 2yo's only


Tyros Stakes is scheduled to take place at Leopardstown Racecourse (IRE) in mid-July 2025.


The Futurity Stakes at the Curragh Racecourse in 2025 is scheduled to be run on Saturday, August 23rd.

Futurity Stakes
Group – 2
Course – Curragh (Ireland)
Race Type – Flat
Distance – 7 Furlongs (Turf)
Ages – 2yo's only




Another exciting 2yo colt also trained by Aiden O'Brien is Charles Darwin who won his 5 1/2-furlong race very impressively [at Nava Race Course (IRE)] and he, too, may end up in those three races listed above.



Here is an article by Thoroughbred Daily:


Charles Darwin


Dam: Muirin (Ire), by Born To Sea (Ire)


Owner: Mrs J Magnier, M Tabor, D Smith & Westerberg
Breeder: Newstead Breeding (Ire)
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien

Navan's Saturday card (May 17) featured a trio of black-type contests, but early focus centred on the EURO 18,000 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden for juveniles, in which Coolmore and Westerberg's Charles Darwin (Ire) (No Nay Never), a full-brother to dual Group 1 winner Blackbeard (Ire), illuminated proceedings with a spectacular 5 1/2-length triumph.

Aidan O'Brien had annexed three consecutive renewals of the near-six furlong contest, including with subsequent G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere hero Camille Pissarro (Ire) (Wootton Bassett {GB}) last year, and his 8-11 pick was away sharply to gain immediate control coming back off a debut fourth over five furlongs at the Curragh two weeks ago.

Untroubled on the front end throughout, the March-foaled bay was allowed an inch of Ryan Moore's rein passing the quarter-mile marker and powered clear in impressive fashion to earn a 'TDN Rising Star' rosette by daylight.

His closest pursuer was the outclassed Ger Lyons trainee Harmani (Ire) (Phoenix Of Spain {Ire}).

Charles Darwin becomes the 11th Rising Star for his sire, whose roll of honour includes the stable's Little Big Bear, Ten Sovereigns and Aesop's Fables. This race's three most recent winners-Camille Pissarro, River Tiber and the aforementioned Aesop's Fables-were all tagged Rising Stars.

"He is a lovely, big, powerful and strong horse and we always thought was an Ascot horse," reported O'Brien.


['Ascot horse' -- O'Brien was referring to the Coventry/Norfolk Stakes]


"He was very green first time in the Curragh and the race was a bit messy, but he did everything right today. He travelled, he has loads of speed and quickened very well. He's not short of speed, so it will be the [G2] Coventry or [G2] Norfolk for him at Royal Ascot."

Charles Darwin is the fourth of five foals, all by No Nay Never, and becomes the fourth scorer produced by a winning daughter of G3 Phoenix Sprint victrix Girouette (Ire) (Pivotal {GB}).

Descendants of the March-foaled bay's stakes-placed third dam Vassiana (Fr) (Anabaa) include multiple Group 3 winner Max Vega (Ire) (Lope De Vega {Ire}) and G3 Anglesey Stakes victrix Kairyu (Ire) (Kuroshio {Aus}).

Hailing from the family of leading distaffers Mrs Penny and Hatoof, the winner is a full-brother to G1 Prix Morny and G1 Middle Park-winning sire Blackbeard (Ire), Listed Prix de Saint Cyr third Run Away (Ire) and a yearling filly.

Run Away was knocked down for EURO 2.6-million as a Goffs Orby yearling and resold for 650,000gns at Tattersalls' most recent December sale.





Another horse named Albert Einstein also won his debut Saturday [May 17, 2025] at Curragh very impressively -- and he, too, is trained by Aiden O'Brien.



SAVING THE BEST FOR LAST!


But the most exciting 2yo from this past Saturday [May 17, 2025] (overseas) was a colt named Treanmor who absolutely destroyed his five rivals in a six-furlong (turf) race at Newmarket (England).

Owned by Godolphin and trained by Charles Appleby, Treanmor is by Frankel out of Loch Lein (Ire) by Invincible Spirit (Ire).

He was a $3 million yearling purchase.

Treanmor (ML 4/5) was sent off at 1/9 heavy favorite against five 2yos, including one filly who was sent off as the 34-1 longest shot in the field.

His connections immediately after the race said that Treanmor is heading to the Coventry Stakes [Royal Ascot] in early June 2025 as his next start.

He is on a collision course with one or more of these: Italy, Charles Darwin, Albert Einstein -- or possibility all three of them.

The way he won his race I will go with Treanmor in the Coventry Stakes even if all three of the listed rivals show up to face him.

He was very very impressive!

I can't wait until the first week of June for the Coventry Stakes.
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5 days ago
Paul Tuon 1 week ago
PREAKNESS WEEK THIS WEEK!

HAPPY PREAKNESS EVERYBODY!


It looks to be a very good betting race as my "watch" horse American Promise is sitting on a huge performance in the Preakness after a dud in the Derby.


Date: Saturday May 17, 2025
Track: Pimlico
Race: 13
Horse: American Promise (ML 15-1)



Bet American Promise to win, place, show, using double down betting strategy.

Put a lot of money on American Promise and you'll be going home as a winner.

I really mean it when I say you'll be going home as a winner, and I will say this:


THIS IS THE EASIEST MONEY YOU'LL EVER GOING TO GET ON ANY CARD ON THAT DAY!


So yes, put some considerable amount of money on American Promise to win, place, show, using double down betting strategy -- it's a smart way to bet and it can't go wrong with this kind of betting strategy.


He won't disappoint us this time (in my opinion).


I don't really have an excuse for his dud performance in the Derby other than to point out the six-week gab between his win in the Virginia Derby and the Kentucky Derby as a factor for his poor performance.

That may have played a role in his poor performance in the Derby and that is what I am assuming.

The good thing about it regarding the Derby was that he wasn't trying at all and it was like a workout performance and not a real race.

He was like jogging and D. Wayne Lukas assistance trainer Bas Nicholl said one day after the race is that the horse came out of the race, "magnificent," Nicholl's exact word.

So it's a sign that the horse is sitting on a huge performance.




ENJOY THE PREAKNESS EVERYBODY!
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1 week ago
Paul Tuon 2 weeks ago
LOOKING FORWARD TO THE PREAKNESS

HOPE YOU ALL ENJOY THE DERBY!


It looks to be a field of 10 horses for the Preakness Stakes as of this writing with a possibility of a full field of 14 when it all said and done.

With the possible exception of American Promise, the D. Wayne Lukas trainee who finished 16th in the Derby, it is unlikely that any of the horses who finished eighth-through-19th in the Derby would run in Baltimore.

Yes, that is right: American Promise is going to the Preakness.

Music to my ears!

I don't have an excuse as to why American Promise ran as poorly as he did in the Derby -- but perhaps the horse probably didn't feel like running his best that day and that's what I'm basing him on -- he was not at his best.

If you recall what I said about American Promise getting a low Beyer Speed Figure for winning the Virginia Derby and I said that American Promise will prove the Beyer Speed Figure calculators wrong in the next couple of races -- meaning that 'the couple of races' are the Derby and the Preakness.


At this point, the Beyer Speed Figure calculator is one and I'm zero.

But I'm not discouraged in any way at all as I have one more round to prove my belief that American Promise is for real.

So I can't wait for the next round.

Bring it on!


Horses who did not run in the Kentucky Derby that are pointing to the Preakness are Clever Again, winner of the Hot Springs Stakes, Heart of Honor, runner-up to Admire Daytona in the UAE Derby, Gosger, winner of the Lexington Stakes, Pay Billy, winner of the Federico Tesio Stakes, Rodriguez, the Wood Memorial winner who scratched out of the Derby with a foot issue, and River Thames, the third-place finisher in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Caldera, runner-up in the Bathhouse Row, is under consideration. Caldera is owned by My Racehorse Stables and trained by Lukas, who won last year's Preakness with Seize the Grey.


As for the Derby, surprisingly, it was a very clean race, meaning, everybody got the trip they wanted with only minor trip-issues like going wide on the turn and having to alter the pathway -- nothing of significance considering the Derby is always encounters significance traffic issues.

With that said, the best horse won the race and congratulation to Sovereignty (the winner) and Journalism (2nd), the two best horses probably prior to and after the Derby.

Here is the full order of the finish:



1st Sovereignty.

The trainer said Sovereignty suffered "a small scrape, about four inches" on his right front pastern during the running, likely when he clipped heels with Chunk of Gold right out of the gate.

He said it was nothing serious but that anything to do with a horse's legs always is a concern.

"When I got back to the barn last night after the race," Mott said, "he'd already eaten up. His tub was empty. Probably did it in 20 minutes. That's unusual for a horse that had to run a race as hard as he did."


2nd Journalism.

"We've got no complaints." Trainer Michael McCarthy was reflecting on his Kentucky Derby experience Sunday morning at barn 35 following his colt Journalism's gallant effort in which he finished second behind Sovereignty.

His Curlin colt had a tough beginning in the 1 1/4-mile race because of traffic and wasn't able to obtain the close-up stalking position his connections had hoped for until well along on the backside.

Then he turned in a stout run around the turn and into the lane only to be outdone by the winner. "With a field this size in a race like this, it's all about the trip," McCarthy said.

"It didn't quite work out the way we hoped, but he ran a good race against a good horse."

The main thing, the conditioner said, was that his horse was "in good order this morning, and everything going forward is now in play."

That would indicate the possibility that Journalism's next start could be in two weeks in Baltimore in the Preakness Stakes and a possible second go-round with the Derby winner.


3rd Baeza.

The Kentucky Derby third-place finisher was doing fine back at barn 41 Sunday morning following his stellar effort.

After nearly not getting to compete in the race after being hung out on the Derby also-eligible list right up until Thursday evening, the good-looking son of young stallion McKinzie took rider Flavien Prat for an adventuresome trip on a sloppy strip in which he closed through the lane with every stride.

"Quite a trip for him this whole week," trainer John Shirreffs said.

"He's never been on a wet surface before, so there was that.

Then that big field and the bumping that went on. But in the end he ran well and we're proud of him."

The conditioner said the Preakness was not a consideration for the bay youngster.

"Too much for a West Coast horse to work with," he said. "We'll go back west, then look at the Belmont."

The third jewel of the Triple Crown will be run this year on June 7 at Saratoga as Belmont Park continues to undergo its massive renovation.

The Belmont will be run for the second year in a row at 1 1/4 miles instead of its usual 1 1/2 miles.

As for Shirreffs's personal westward journey, that was to happen Sunday morning at 10 a.m. EDT on the private jet of owner Lee Searing.

"Only way to fly," Shirreffs said.


4th Final Gambit.

Juddmonte's Final Gambit was back at trainer Brad Cox's barn 22, resting after his fourth-place finish in Kentucky Derby 151.

"We're really proud of his effort, especially this being his first start on dirt," Cox said.

"Maybe if the pace was a little bit faster, it could've benefited him even more.

Overall it was a good effort. He's a good horse.

We'll see how it goes from here."


5th Owen Almighty.

Flying Dutchmen Breeding and Racing's Owen Almighty, who led the Derby field into the homestretch, "seems to have come out of the race in good order," trainer Brian Lynch said.

"We will let the dust or mud settle and talk with the team but possibly the Woody Stephens (G1) next."

That seven-furlong race is June 7 at Saratoga.


6th Burnham Square.

Whitham Thoroughbreds' Burnham Square came out of his troubled sixth-place finish in the Derby in good order.

"I jogged him, and he looks good," trainer Ian Wilkes said. Burnham Square was put in tight quarters at the half-mile pole when Admire Daytona came in on him.

"In a 20-horse field, somebody is going to have trouble, and I guess it was my turn," Wilkes said.

"I thought he ran a terrific race. He got stopped at the half-mile pole when everybody else was making their move, and then he got going again to get sixth.

Without the trouble, I think he would have been in the top three." Plans going forward for Burnham Square are to be determined.


7th Sandman.

D. J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds and CJ Stables' Sandman was doing well Sunday morning following his Kentucky Derby run.

"He is good this morning," said Allen Hardy, assistant to Mark Casse.

"He ate up last night and jogged early this morning (at the barn)."

Casse indicated that the Belmont Stakes (G1) likely would be next for Sandman.


8th East Avenue.

Godolphin's East Avenue was back at trainer Brendan Walsh's barn 10 Sunday morning following his eighth-place finish in Kentucky Derby 151.

"This was my second time running in the Derby, and I was able to take it in a little more this time," Walsh said.

"The atmosphere is unbelievable. I've been in lots of places all over the world, and this is second to none."


9th Chunk of Gold.

Terry Stephens's Chunk of Gold exited his Kentucky Derby run in good order, according to trainer Ethan West.

"The horse is OK," West said. Chunk of Gold was scheduled to leave Churchill Downs around 10 a.m. EDT to return to Turfway Park.

"I think the mile-and-a-quarter probably got to him. He will get a couple weeks off, and there are plenty of 3-year-old races across the summer for him."


10th Tiztastic and 14th Publisher.

Although things did not go as planned for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen in Saturday's Kentucky Derby, the veteran horseman still had reason to celebrate.

He earned his record-extending 14th trainer title at Oaklawn. The Asmussen family was represented Saturday at both tracks with sons Erik and Keith accepting the trophy at Oaklawn while Steve, his wife Julie, and their other son Darren were at Churchill Downs.


11th Coal Battle.

Norman Stables' Coal Battle was doing well Sunday morning, according to assistant and exercise rider Bethany Taylor, who added, "he's probably a little mad and grouchy this morning because he's not used to being that far back."

Trainer Lonnie Briley said he is going to let the horse tell us where to take him next. He wants to watch and see how much the race took out of him. He thinks the track condition did not play a factor into how Coal Battle ran the rough trip.


12th Luxor Café and 19th Admire Daytona. From Kate Hunter, Japan's Kentucky Derby liaison: "Both Japanese horses came back from the race in good condition.

Junko Kondo's Admire Daytona was not a fan of the slop. He was well positioned, but it wore him out.

Traffic ultimately thwarted Koichi Nishikawa's Luxor Café, who was unable to get a good spot early.

Both could come back for the Breeders' Cup Classic on Nov. 1 at Del Mar. No rain in Southern California."


15th Citizen Bull and scratched Rodríguez.

The morning after the Derby was fairly quiet at Bob Baffert's barn 33.

Right-hand man Jimmy Barnes reported Saturday's pacesetter Citizen Bull bounced back well.

"He's fine," Barnes said. "He'll walk for a couple of days, and then we'll see what's up from there."

Citizen Bull set quick early splits after breaking from post 1 under Martín García, going 22.81, 46.23 and 1:10.78 for the first six furlongs.

He ran out of gas from there and fell back to finish 15th in the 19-horse field.

Baffert said Rodríguez, the Authentic colt who was scratched Thursday because of a bruised foot, will be his only Preakness runner.

That means Citizen Bull was likely to be on a plane back to California along with the dozen other runners Baffert shipped east to compete during the week.


16th American Promise.

BC Stables' American Promise came out of his Derby effort in good order, according to Bas Nicholl, assistant to trainer D. Wayne Lukas.

"Magnificent," Nicholl said.

American Promise was part of the pace before beginning to retreat entering the far turn.


18th Flying Mohawk.

It was a disappointing Saturday evening for the connections of Flying Mohawk, who finished 18th after he experienced trouble in the first quarter-mile of the race.

"The sun still rose at Churchill, and Mohawk is still the man," co-owner Jeff Berry said.

"Thanks to Flying Mohawk and the entire team for an incredible life experience for the Berry family."


SEE YOU ALL IN THE PREAKNESS IN TWO WEEKS!
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2 weeks ago
Paul Tuon 2 weeks ago
WOW! -- A TRACK RECORD BY FIERCENESS !!!



Fierceness, the odds-on favorite Fierceness (4-5), broke a course and stakes records of 1:41.04 set by Successful Dan, who also carried 118 pounds in winning the 2012 Alysheba.

In a field of six horses while traveling three wide before launching a full-on attack down the homestretch on the way to a 1 1/2-length triumph in the Grade 2, $750,000 Alysheba Stakes, a 1 1/16-mile test for older horses on the Kentucky Oaks undercard, Fierceness won going away despite coming off a six-month layoff after finishing second in the Breeders' Cup Classic last fall (November 2024).


“For him to have that wide trip purposely, where Johnny [Velazquez] just kept him wide and out of trouble and still break a track record?”
Fierceness’s lead owner Mike Repole said.

“I mean this is a really, really special horse.”



“He’s a nice horse, and he showed it today, but wow,” Pletcher said.
“A track record at Churchill Downs, that’s a really big deal.”



I'm really looking forward to this summer and beyond, and one horse in particular that I have my eyes on for quite some time is Just a Touch and he is scheduled to race in the Met Mile on June 7 on the Belmont Stakes day.

I think he (Just a Touch) will do just fine in that race and goes on to bigger stakes races, and perhaps eventually he will meet Fierceness at some point later this summer.

It will be a race to look forward to, but which race?

I suspect either the Whitney or the Woodward at Saratoga later this summer.

We'll see if that is the case.

I can't wait!
104 views 0 Reply
2 weeks ago
Paul Tuon 3 weeks ago
HAPPY DERBY WEEK EVERYBODY !




It's that time of the year when my adrenaline is running full bore, especially after seeing the field of the Derby have been assembled and completed.

My two main horses, American Promise, East Avenue, got descend posts -- especially East Avenue who will break from post position 12 -- but not so much with American Promise who will break from post position 5.

Both of my horses have speed and likely to be among the first-tier speed horses -- at least for the run up to the first turn where there will be a lot of chaotic scene.

More about American Promise and East Avenue running style later.

A lot of horses will be impacted on the first turn and some horses will be forced to show speed to maintain or make position.

We know that Citizen Bull (post 1), Neoequos (post 2), Rodriquez (post 4), Admire Daytona (post 6), American Promise (post 5) and East Avenue (post 12) will show speed -- but how much speed will they show?

Also these horse will need to show speed as well to gain position -- horses like Coal Battle (post 16), Owen Almighty (post 20), Grande (post 10) and even Render Judgement (post 15) who usually races in a stalking position.

My guess is that Publisher (post 13) will also show speed due to the fact that he was slow to get out of the gate in his last three races, especially in the Arkansas Derby when he was again last out of the gate and had to make a long sustain run to finish second.

His connection, in my opinion, may have corrected his gate problem and in doing so inadvertently makes Publisher (post 13) showing speed that he never shown before -- that is my guess.

In other words, there will be quite a few horses in this year's Derby will show some speed in contrast to their prior showing and one of them is Publisher (post 13).

This means that, there will be a lot of speed in this year's Derby.

Bob Baffert is not going to take back Citizen Bull (post 1) as he said so after the post position draw, and Owen Almighty (post 20) in an outside post position is certainly not going to take back either.

He'll be gunning right out of the gate to gain position from post position 20 -- and whether he'll be among the leaders is up to the jockey to decide since Owen Almighty has enough speed to make the lead if the jockey wants him to.

Personally, I think Neoequos, in post position 2, is the likely horse to set the pace with Citizen Bull (post 1) is the likely horse to track Neoequos.

Now after the two horses I think East Avenue (post 12) is the likely third horse closely behind the two leaders, and perhaps, join by may be a few other second-tier speed horses -- horses like Owen Almighty (post 20), Rodriquez (4), Grande (post 10) and Publisher (13).

This should make my other horse, American Promise, sitting among the third-tier stalking horses -- yes, I said STALKING -- about four to five lengths behind the lone pace setter Neoequos (post 2).

That is the scenario that I see American Promise will be in the early part of the race approaching the backstretch.

I don't think American Promise will be anywhere near the front end as most experts seem to think he will be -- but from my point of view he's a third-tier stalking horse and not the first- or second-tier speed horse even though he showed speed in most of his races.

In this this year's Derby there is a lot of speed and that makes American Promise a stalking horse as apposed to a speed horse.

Music to my ears!!!

My worries is that with my other horse, East Avenue, as he is a one-dimensional speed horse who likes to be in front and seems more comfortable on the lead.

Looking at his past races, it makes me more convinced that he is not a head-strong uncontrollable horse and therefore he may be rateable and controllable behind other speed horses.

So I'm very comfortable playing him as well.

East Avenue has a very huge chance of winning this year's Derby.

I repeat:

East Avenue has a very huge chance of winning this year's Derby.


So my plays are the following:

Bet American Promise to win, place, show using triple down betting strategy.

Also bet East Avenue to win , place, show using triple down betting strategy.


ENJOY THE DERBY EVERYBODY!
115 views 0 Reply
3 weeks ago
Paul Tuon 1 month ago
PREAKNESS HORSE PREVIEW




Looking pass the Derby toward the Preakness Cornucopian is gearing up for the Preakness Stakes by running in a first level allowance race at Aqueduct this weekend (Sunday April 27) where he is towering over his seven rivals.

Note also that Baffert is taking that idiot jockey Velazquez off Cornucopian -- thank you very much Bob Baffert for realizing what a dumb ass Velazquez is.

I hope Baffert doesn't give that stupid jockey any more mounts from here on.

Baffert knew what he had in Cornucopian going into the Arkansas Derby and that idiot jockey blew all the chances that Cornucopian had for winning the Arkansas Derby as well as a chance to be in the Kentucky Derby.

I'm very glad that Baffert can see how stupid that jockey really is.


WAY TO GO BOB BAFFERT !!!
WAY TO GO BOB BAFFERT !!!
WAY TO GO BOB BAFFERT !!!


As for Cornucopian -- it will give him three weeks between this race and the Preakness.

He will likely be 1/5 heavy heavy favorite in this race.

To compensate that low odd I recommend playing exacta using Sand Devil on the bottom.

For trifecta using two horses on the third leg: Ican and Toga d'Oro.


1 Mile Open 3 Year Olds ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING : $100,000Purse: $82,000

Date: Sunday April 27, 2025
Track: Aqueduct
Race: 7
Surface: dirt

Horse: Cornucopian (ML 3/5 favorite)

Bet Cornucopian to win and put a lot of money on him because he is going to win this race in a romp. [Mark my word: ROMP !!!]

Easy Exacta: Cornucopian (ML 3-5) over Sand Devil (ML 6-1)

Trifecta: Cornucopian (ML 3-5) over Sand Devil (ML 6-1) over Ican (ML 20-1) and Toga d'Oro (ML 30-1)


BONUS:

6 Furlongs Open 3, 4 and 5 Year Olds MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT Purse: $60,000

Date: Saturday April 27, 2025
Track: Santa Anita Park
Race: 9
Surface: Turf

Horse: Metro (ML 8-1 fourth choice behind 3-1 favorite A Day to Remember)

Bet Metro to win, place using double down betting strategy.
114 views 0 Reply
1 month ago
Paul Tuon 1 month ago
HAPPY PRE-DERBY EXCITEMENT EVERYBODY !!!




The Oaks/Derby draws are this Saturday afternoon live on TV from Churchill Downs signal to all racetracks in North America taking place between races with the Oaks being drawn first and then the Derby.

So the excitement is brewing on my part and hopefully my two main horses (American Promise and East Avenue) get a descend post position.



Along the Derby trail I had my eyes on Cornucopian as early as April 2024 as my Derby hopeful prospect and things were looking very good in my opinion until March 15, 2025, when a horse named American Promise caught my eyes winning the Virginia Derby very impressively while breaking that track record almost by two seconds -- yes, almost two seconds -- [unheard of].

Comparing the two side by side I quickly came to the realization that American Promise seems to be the better of the two and I quickly switched my Derby hopeful allegiance from Cornucopian to American Promise.

But, I was still loyal to Cornucopian in spite of my switch.

Then two weeks later a debacle bonehead ride by (the moron) John Velasquez on Cornucopian in the Arkansas Derby (on April 5) knocked Cornucopian out of Derby eligibility.

So I'm still upset with Velazquez for causing Cornucopian to not be in the Derby.

John Velazquez is the worse jockey on the planet -- yes, that is right: WORSE JOCKEY ON THE PLANET !!!

He screws up so many races and if it wasn't for the fact that he rides for Todd Fletcher he would be just an ordinary to below class jockey.

Fletcher made Velazquez better than he actually is -- and that is a fact!


Two most notable races that really get under my skin are last year's Derby aboard Fierceness in which he sent Fierceness to a three-prong duel for the lead with insane fractions and recently this year's Arkansas Derby where he did the same thing sending Cornucopian to a two-prong battle for the lead with even more insane fractions causing all chances for Cornucopian to do any late running.

To Cornucopian's credit he stuck on for fourth but not enough for the Derby points.



I'VE HAD ENOUGH WITH THAT BONEHEAD JOCKEY!

WHAT A MORON!

NUFF SAID ABOUT THAT STUPID JOCKEY!



That said, my pick is American Promise.


But I'm still upset with Velasquez for causing Cornucopian to not be in the Derby since I still think that Cornucopian has a very good chance to win the Derby if American Promise doesn't live up to my expectation.

Now my plan is to use American Promise on top and maybe find other horses like East Avenue and a couple others to put on the bottom tickets for exacta, trifecta, and superfecta.


My most likely plays are very simple:


Bet American Promise to win, place, show using triple down betting strategy.

Also bet East Avenue to win, place, show using triple down betting strategy.
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1 month ago
Paul Tuon 1 month ago
"HOT" "HOT" PLAY OF THE WEEK !



1 1/8 Miles | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up | ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING : $80,000 | Purse: $130,000

Date: Saturday April 19, 2025
Track: Keeneland
Race: 8
Surface: dirt

Horse: Just a Touch (ML 6/5 favorite)

Bet Just a Touch to win and put a lot of money on him because he is going to win this race in a romp. [Mark my word: ROMP !!!]

See a profile that I've made on Just a Touch just a few posts down this thread with the headline titled HORSE WATCH STABLE (just one post below "Pick for Saturday March 8, 2025").

BONUS:

1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $55,000

Date: Saturday April 19, 2025
Track: Gulfstream Park
Race: 6
Surface: dirt

Horse: Vibe (ML 2-1 favorite)

Bet Vibe to win, place using double down betting strategy and put a lot of money on him because I think he is going to win this race as he is a highly regarded $3 million purchase trained by Todd Fletcher and Fletcher is putting a blinker on him in this race to make him more focus while forcing him to show some speed.

He'll break his maiden this Saturday with a descent price on him (perhaps 8/5 final odd).

Vibe is a 3-year-old colt by Into Mischief and he is a half-brother to Grade 1 winner Outwork.

Vibe made his career debut on March 15, 2025, in which, he finished fourth, beaten 15 1/4 lengths by a very impressive debut winner Here comes Francis.


To understand why Vibe was beaten 15 1/4 lengths that day you'll need to see a profile that I've made on Here Comes Francis just a few posts down this thread with the headline titled INAUGURAL VIRGINIA DERBY AND VIRGINIA OAKS GOT OFF TO A BANG!.
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1 month ago
 
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