Pick for Sunday March 17, 2024:
Any Limit Stakes
6 Furlongs | Fillies | 3 Year Olds | G STAKES | PURSE: $100,000
Track: Gulfstream Park
Race: 6
Horse: R Harper Rose (ML 1-1).
Field (in post position order):
1. Runaway Diva (ML 30-1)
2. Launch (ML 9-2)
3. Amor Fati (ML 4-1)
4. Candy Gray (ML 3-1)
5. Chi Chi (ML 8-1)
6. R Harper Rose (ML 1-1)
Looking at the race and put my handicapping knowledge to use it looks to be a two-horse race between R Harper Rose (ML 1-1) and Amor Fati (ML 4-1) in a small field of six -- at least that's what I see.
However, according to the morning line odds it says a different story.
R Harper Rose (ML 1-1) is the heavy favorite and rightfully so.
But Candy Gray (ML 3-1) is the second choice aheah of Amor Fati (ML 4-1) [???]
Heck, I thought Amor Fati (ML 4-1) should be the second choice based on her debut race.
Here is what I wrote about Amor Fati on February 11, 2024:
A 3-YEAR OLD FILLY ON DEBUT CAUGHT MY EYES
On Sunday February 11, 2024, a 3yo filly named Amor Fati (Liam's Map - Mallory by Street Sense) won her debut race by 5 lengths, running the 6-furlong maiden special weight $70k race in 1:10:43, at Gulfstream Park, race 6, paying $6.40 as the 2-1 favorite.
The 3yo filly broke sharply and set a fast pace in :21:43 (for 1/4 mile) :44:74 (for 1/2 mile) en route to finish the 6-furlong race in 1:10:43 on a fast Gulfstream Park dirt main track.
Amor Fati was a $375,000 Sept'22 Keen Sale purchase and is a half-sister to Accretive (Practical Joke), $323,393.
She is trained by Maryland-based trainer Brittany Russell.
Needless to say, Amor Fati has a very bright future in front of her and we (as horseplayers) can look forward to seeing and betting on her in the near future.
As you can see, Amor Fati should be the second choice based on her debut race.
Anyhow, I'm just going to go with my own gut instinct and pick the way I want to pick -- and believe in it.
From my handicapping point of view, R Harper Rose is the most likely winner of the Any Limit Stakes on this Sunday March 17, 2024.
So bet R Harper Rose (ML 1-1) to win.
Yes, that is right: WIN using the "Two-Horse Race" betting angle/strategy (to be described next) and you should be going home as a winner.
Put some considerable amount of money on R Harper Rose (ML 1-1) to win to make it worthwhile and justified going to the racetrack.
Take this easy money 1/1(or at whatever the price is -- 2/5 is my guess) and leave the racetrack as a winner.
Hedging:
Divide the win bet amount on R Harper Rose (described above) by the probable exacta payoff combination using Amor Fati over R Harper Rose.
Now take that result of the division above and play the exacta by putting Amor Fati on top of R Harper Rose.
Notice that we're not putting R Harper Rose over Amor Fati.
This is a hedging bet.
That is it!
NOW THE TWO-HORSE RACE BETTNG ANGLE/STRATGY
As stated above, it looks to be a two-horse race between R Harper Rose (ML 1-1) and Amor Fati (ML 4-1).
So a smart way to play this race is to use a betting method called the "Two-Horse Race" betting angle/strategy.
This angle calls for betting the favorite R Harper Rose (ML 1-1) to win.
This race fits a "Two-Horse Race" angle, and therefore, we can use the "Two-Horse Race" angle to our advantage.
Suggestion: For those of you who do your own handicapping, you might want to use this angle to your advantage when you go to the racetrack.
Just copy the angle description (to be described later) and put it in your pocket when you go to the racetrack and use it when you see any race that looks to be a two-horse race.
Two-horse race scenario happens all the time and most horseplayers are very good at handicapping races and they know a two-horse race when they see one, but they don't know how to bet.
But when it's time to bet a two-horse race they try to be cute (or clever is the right word) and ended up losing.
The correct and smart way to bet when you see a two-horse race (like this one) is to use the two-horse race angle, to be described next.
TWO-HORSE RACE BETTNG ANGLE/STRATGY
This angle (or rather betting strategy) has to do with a two-horse race and the two horses have to be the first and second choice in the betting for today's race.
In my opinion, this 6th race [at Gulstream Park] fits a two-horse race angle perfectly, and we can use this angle to our advantage.
The thinking is that, I think the favorite is going to win the race and we should bet a lot of money on the favorite -- but since this is a two-horse race and we can't put a lot of money on the favorite due to the fact that the second choice is so dangerous in upsetting the favorite -- and we can't take that chance to have a lot of our money on the favorite.
What should we do?
In this race the favorite being R Harper Rose (ML 1-1) and the second choice being Amor Fati (ML 4-1) [in my opinion]; however, the actual odds and the public may not agree with my assessment and they might make Amor Fati as the third choice behind Candy Gray (ML 3-1), the second choice -- but we'll see.
Anyhow, for this pick we'll assume that R Harper Rose is the favorite and Amor Fati is the second choice.
This race is a perfect scenario that you see all the time where you have two good horses and the rest are just not good enough to compete with these two horses.
And this race is exactly that: A two-horse race.
So how do we play the race?
The most conventional way to play the race is to play exacta by putting the favorite over the second choice.
That is what most horseplayers often do but to no avail due to the fact that the second choice is so dangerous in upsetting the favorite.
The next question is: Box the two favorites, perhaps?
Answer: Maybe!
But a true answer and a smart way to play is to use this "two-horse-race" angle to our advantage.
That is the smart way to do it.
So in order to put a lot of money with confidence on the favorite (R Harper Rose (ML 1-1)) -- (or if you choose to use Amor Fati (ML 4-1) as the favorite) -- we have to hedge our bets to protect our money on the favorite.
The keyword here is confidence -- we need to have a certain level of confidence in order to put a lot of money on the favorite R Harper Rose.
Our goal is to stand behind our favorite R Harper Rose and hope that she will come through; however, on the other hand, if the second choice Amor Fati beats our favorite and our favorite comes in second -- we will get most of our money back; hence, hedging.
If the latter happens, we live to bet another race (or another day or another week or another month).
We're not expecting to get rich by any means -- after all, we're talking about two favorites in the betting.
[Once again, you need to decide between these two horses -- whether you want R Harper Rose as the favorite or if you choose to use Amor Fati as the favorite -- it's up to you to decide.]
With that said, let's forge on:
From my handicapping point of view, R Harper Rose is the most likely winner of the 6th race on this Sunday March 17, 2024.
Having said that, the second choice (Amor Fati) is so dangerous in this race and she is for real and she can beat R Harper Rose.
Knowing that we have to hedge our bets to protect our money.
A smart way to bet is to hedge the bets.
To hedge our bets to protect our money on the favorite, play the horse as follows:
Bet R Harper Rose to win.
Put a lot of money on R Harper Rose to win.
I often say this:
Put a lot of money on R Harper Rose to win to make it worthwhile and justified going to the racetrack.
And I also like to say this as well:
Take this easy money 1/1 (or at whatever the price is -- 2/5 is my guess) and leave the racetrack as a winner.
And this is especially true for this race as well.
This is where we potentially make some money -- not a lot but some -- depending on how much money you're willing to put on the horse (R Harper Rose).
At this point, we should feel very confident about R Harper Rose according to our handicapping skills and experiences.
Once again, the keyword here is confident -- we need to have a certain level of confidence in order to put a lot of money on R Harper Rose.
So make sure you put some considerable amount of money on R Harper Rose to win to make it worthwhile and justified going to the racetrack and at the same time you're comfortable doing so.
Not only that, this hedging play should give you more confidence and calm your nerve a bit.
HEDGING:
Play the exacta by putting Amor Fati on top of R Harper Rose.
Notice that we're not putting R Harper Rose over Amor Fati.
This is a hedging bet.
This seems counter-intuitive -- after all, this is a two-horse race.
Why not killing two birds with one stone?
Ahh! ...... this is called greed!
We don't want to be greedy!
We just want to take the win bets on the favorite [R Harper Rose] and that is it!
No more!
We don't want to play the exacta (but only to hedge).
That is a smart way to play this race.
If the two favorites run one-two just like we and the public think they would -- that's our goal!
Be satistified and don't second-guess your betting actions.
Most horse players would say, "I should've played the exacta on R Harper Rose over Amor Fati, too. This is easy money!"
After all, we and the public think that this is a two-horse race with the favorite is the most likely winner and the second choice is likely to come in second.
Why not try to make more money?
Again, that is pure greed!
And that greed could lead to trouble.
The next question is: How much money to edge?
See the following.
Post Time Odds: Observe the probable exacta payoffs right around two minutes (or less) to actual post time.
If you don't have time to look for the probable exacta payoffs just use an educated guess and go from there.
As a general rule, divide the win bet amount on [the favorite] by the probable exacta payoff combination using [the second choice] over [the favorite].
In other words, divide the amount that you bet on R Harper Rose to win by the probable exacta payoff combination on Amor Fati over R Harper Rose.
Make note: Use the win bet only.
Again, to get the probable exacta payoff combination on Amor Fati over R Harper Rose, you have to look at the toteboard that displays the probable exacta payoffs.
Again, if you don't have time to look for the probable exacta payoffs just use an educated guess and go from there.
Depending on the field size and competition the probable exacta payoff with [the second choice] over [the favorite] will probably be right around $7 or $8.
For example, assuming you're betting $20 to win on [the favorite] and the probable exacta payoff with [the second choice] over [the favorite] is $7, you divide $20 by $7, which is right around $3 (rounding up to the nearest whole number).
As a general rule, if it's an odd number rounding up to the next even number, $4 in this case.
So you would bet the exacta $4 on [the second choice] over [the favorite].
In other words, you would bet the exacta $4 on Amor Fati over R Harper Rose.
This means that our hedging returns $14 (2 x $7) and we're still losing $6 on our entire scheme.
It doesn't seem like a good scheme -- does it?
Don't be over zealous or greedy by putting too much money on the exacta that it would eat into your profits if the favorite (R Harper Rose) wins.
The Hedging Scheme Above Aims To Achieve Two Objectives:
1. To lessen the pain in case the second choice beats the favorite.
2. To be "comfortable" enough to put a lot of money with "confidence" on the favorite.
The keywords here are "comfortable" and "confidence" -- we need to be "comfortable" and have a certain level of "confidence" in order to put a lot of money on the favorite.
Those are the two objectives of the hedging scheme.
Our hedging scheme is not to make money but to lessen the pain while having the courage to put a lot of money on the favorite to win.
Now the two-horse race angle with a hedging scheme is complete.
But wait! -- there's more!
What happens if you like the second choice better than the favorite?
In that case, you have three options:
1. Play the angle in reverse.
In other words, reverse the roles -- with the favorite as the second choice and the second choice, which is the horse you actually like, as the favorite.
And then follow the stated angle described above normally, but only this time, the second choice acts as the favorite and the favorite acts as the second choice -- not necessarily that their odds will indicate and end up in such order.
2. Play the race as you normally would and bet the race accordingly.
In other words, don't use this angle (or hedging scheme) but feel free to bet the horse the way you normally bet.
3. Do not play the race -- pass it up and sit on the sideline.
Those are the three options you can choose to play the race [choose one].
Now the two-horse race betting angle/strategy with a hedging scheme is complete.
Copy the following description and take it to the track.
NOW THE SUMMARY OF THE TWO-HORSE RACE ANGLE
1. The Play: Bet the favorite to win.
Put a lot of money on the favorite to win.
2. Hedging: Divide the "win" bet amount on the favorite (from step 1 above) by the probable exacta payoff combination on the second choice over the favorite.
Using the result from the division (from this step 2) to bet the exacta on the second choice over the favorite.
Those are the two steps in the two-horse race angle.
But that is only using the favorite as the play.
The other way is to use the second choice as the play.
Now what happens if you like the second choice better than the favorite?
In that case, you reverse the roles -- with the favorite as the second choice and the second choice, which is the horse you actually like, as the favorite -- and follow the angle described earlier accordingly.
1. The Play: Bet the second choice to win.
Put a lot of money on the second choice to win.
2. Hedging: Divide the "win" bet amount on the second choice (from step 1 above) by the probable exacta payoff combination on the favorite over the second choice.
Using the result from the division (from this step 2) to bet the exacta on the favorite over the second choice.
As you can see again, it's just two steps.
Very simple!
AS YOU CAN SEE ABOVE WE HAVE TWO WAYS TO PLAY THE TWO-HORSE RACE ANGLE
1. Play the angle by betting the favorite to win and hedging using the second choice over the favorite.
OR
2. Play the angle by betting the second choice to win and hedging using the favorite over the second choice.
AS YOU CAN SEE ABOVE CHOOSE ONE OR THE OTHER
So it's up to you to choose to play one or the other, but not both!
Yes, that is right: DO NOT PLAY BOTH WAYS!
That is it!
SUGGESTION:
For those of you in the US who do your own handicapping you can use this "two-horse" race angle whenever you see one.
Just copy the angle description described above and put it in your pocket whenever you go to the racetrack and use it whenever you see a race that is a two-horse race.
There are plenty of scenarios/races that are two-horse races all the time.
So use this angle to your advantage.
There you have it!
