Pick for Friday March 22, 2024:
HAPPY GOLDEN SLIPPER EVERYONE!
The Golden Slipper Stakes
6 Furlongs | 3 Year Olds (for both sexes)| G STAKES | PURSE: $5,000,000
Track: Rosehill Racecourse (Sydney, Australia)
Race: 8
Horse: Storm Boy (ML 6-5).
Field (in post position order) showing odd [and saddlcloth #]:
1. Fully Lit[2] (ML 33-1)
2. Storm Boy[1] (ML 6-5)
3. Shangri La Express[3] (ML 20-1)
4. Coleman[10] (ML 49-1)
5. Lady Of Camelot[14] (ML 14-1)
6. Traffic Warden[5] (ML 50-1)
7. Switzerland[7] (ML 3-1)
8. Holmes A Court[11] (ML 33-1)
9. Straight Charge[6] (ML 8-1)
10. Bodyguard[8] (ML 25-1)
11. Prost[12] (ML 33-1)
12. Espionage[17e] (ML 16-1)
13. Dublin Down[9] (ML 33-1)
14. Rue De Royale[4] (ML 100-1)
15. Eneeza[16] (ML 33-1)
16. Hayasugi[13] (ML 17-1)
17. Manaal[15] (ML 25-1)
CORRECTION: The maximum field for the Golden Slipper is 16 -- and not 25 as I previously stated.
As you can see the field is 17 with one horse [Espionage[17e] (ML 16-1)] is listed as "17e" with "e" stands for "emergency" alternate standby horse in case any of the 16 horses ahead of him is scratched before 3:00 p.m. (US Central time Friday afternoon).
Make note that the field above is listed here in post position order with the morning line odd and the horse's saddlcloth # enclosed in the square brackets [] next to the horse's name.
In Australia and Europe the field is listed in the order of the horse's saddlcloth # as apposed to in post position order as we do here in the US.
As you play their races make sure to adhere to their system of racing format so that you don't get confused and watching and cheering for the wrong horse.
Worse yet, betting on the wrong horse by using the above post position order as your horse's saddlcloth # -- BAD! BAD! BAD!
The 2024 field is made up of 12 colts, no geldings and four fillies, with Espionage also adding to the colts representation should he get in the starting lineup.
The four fillies in the Golden Slipper are Lady Of Camelot, Manaal, Hayasugi, and Eneeza.
Of the four fillies Lady Of Camelot is the better of the four at 13-1.
The last four fillies to win the Golden Slipper are Farnan (2020), Kiamichi (2019), Estijaab (2018), and She Will Reign (2017).
Yes, that is correct: Fillies have won the Golden Slipper four consecutive years from 2017 to 2020.
This year, it's a very longshot for a filly or anybody else for that matter to win the Golden Slipper due to the presence of Storm Boy in the race.
Anyhow, looking at the race and put my handicapping knowledge to use, it looks to be a two-horse race between Storm Boy (ML 6-5) and Switzerland (ML 3-1) in a huge maximum field capacity of 16 -- at least that's what I see.
For those of us in the US, Saturday in Australia is Friday for us.
Actually, it's Friday night for us in the US with their first race starts at 9:00 P.M (US Central Time) but it's noon time Saturday in Australia.
The Golden Slipper is scheduled to go off at around 1:00 or 1:30 A.M (US Central Time).
So if you don't have to work early Saturday you can go to your local racetrack and enjoy the Golden Slipper in the night owl.
Most racetracks in the US carry Australian races and all betting sites (like Twinspires, TVG, ExpressBet) carry Australian races.
As stated earlier, this year's Golden Slipper is a two-horse race between Storm Boy and Switzerland.
Storm Boy is a huge favorite to win the race and Switzerland is not far behind.
The rest of the field are just supporting cast hoping to get a piece of the $5 million purse.
I know I love betting on favorites and this race fuels my appetite since Storm Boy is the likely winner of the Golden Slipper.
I usually like to say:
Take this easy 6/5 money (or whatever the price is -- 1/2 is my guess) and leave the racetrack as a winner.
Yes, that is right: Storm Boy is likely to go off at odd of 1/2 or lower despite a huge field of 16.
That's how dominance Storm Boy has been to garner such a 1/2 probable final odd.
That's my assessment on Storm Boy's chances, but this is horse racing and with a field of 16, anything can happen.
[However, with a huge crowd and lots and lots of "fun-playing" money that comes from ordinary casual fans that bet on horses using their favorite color, favorite number, favorite horse name, favorite jockey, etc., Storm Boy's final odd may drift up to as high as 4/5 (who knows???).]
So I'm going to give you a smart way to play Storm Boy using a "Two-Horse" race angle.
Two-Horse Race Angle
This angle has to do with a two-horse race and the two horses have to be the first and second choice in the betting for today's race.
This year's Golden Slipper -- it's a two-horse race, and we can use this angle to our advantage.
The thinking is that, I think the favorite is going to win the race and we should bet a lot of money on the favorite, but since this is a two-horse race, we can't put a lot of money on the favorite due to the fact that the second choice is so dangerous in upsetting the favorite -- and we can't take that chance to have a lot of our money on the favorite.
In this race the favorite being Storm Boy and the second choice being Switzerland.
What do we do?
This race is a perfect scenario that you see all the time (in the US races) where you have two good horses and the rest are just not good enough to compete with the two horses.
So how do we play the race?
The most conventional way to play the race -- at least for most horseplayers -- is to play exacta by putting the favorite over the second choice.
That is what most horseplayers often do but to no avail due to the fact that the second choice is so dangerous in upsetting the favorite.
The next question is: Box the two favorites, perhaps?
Answer: Maybe!
But the true answer and a smart way to play is to use this "two-horse-race" angle to our advantage.
That is the smart way to do it.
So in order to put a lot of money with confidence on the favorite Storm Boy, which I think has a very good chance to win the race, we have to hedge our bets to protect our money on the favorite.
The keyword here is confidence -- we need to have a certain level of confidence in order to put a lot of money on the favorite Storm Boy.
Our goal is to stand behind the favorite Storm Boy and hope that he will come through; however, on the other hand, if the second choice Switzerland beats the favorite and the favorite comes in second -- we will get most of our money back -- hence, hedging.
If the latter happens, we live to bet another race (or another day or another week or another month).
We're not expecting to get rich by any means -- after all, we're talking about two favorites in the betting.
With that said, let's forge on:
From my handicapping point of view, Storm Boy is the most likely winner of the Golden Slipper.
Having said that, the second choice (Switzerland) is so dangerous in this race and he is for real and he can upset the favorite.
Knowing that we have to hedge our bets to protect our money.
A smart way to bet is to hedge the bets.
To hedge our bets to protect our money on the favorite, play the race as follows:
Bet Storm Boy to win.
Put a lot of money on Storm Boy to win.
As I often say:
Put a lot of money on Storm Boy to win to make it worthwhile and justified going to the racetrack.
And this is especially true for this race as well.
This is where we potentially make some money -- not a lot but some -- depending on how much money you're willing to put on the horse.
At this point, I feel very confident about Storm Boy according to the statistics and my handicapping skills and experiences.
Once again, the keyword here is confident -- I need to have a certain level of confidence in order to put a lot of money on Storm Boy.
And I do have a lot of confidence in Storm Boy winning the Golden Slipper.
So make sure you put some considerable amount of money on Storm Boy to win to make it worthwhile and justified going to the racetrack and at the same time you're comfortable doing so.
Not only that, this hedging play should give you more confidence and calm your nerve a bit.
HEDGING:
Play the exacta by putting Switzerland on top of Storm Boy.
Notice that we're not putting Storm Boy over Switzerland.
We're not doing that.
This is a hedging bet.
This seems counter-intuitive -- after all, this is a two-horse race.
Why not killing two birds with one stone?
Ahh! ...... this is called greed!
We don't want to be greedy!
We just want to take the win bets and that is it!
No more!
We don't want to play the exacta (but only to hedge).
That is a smart way to play this race.
If the two favorites run one-two just like we and the public thought they would -- that's our goal!
Be satistified and don't second-guess your betting actions.
Most horse players would say, "I should've played the exacta on [the favorite] over [the second choice], too. This is easy money!"
After all, we and the public think that this is a two-horse race with the favorite is the most likely winner and the second choice is likely to come in second.
Why not try to make more money?
Again, that is pure greed!
And that greed could lead to trouble.
The next question is: How much money to edge?
See the following.
Post Time Odds: Observe the probable exacta payoffs right around two minutes (or less) to actual post time.
If you don't have time to look for the probable exacta payoffs just use an educated guess and go from there.
As a general rule, divide the win bet amount on [the favorite Storm Boy] by the probable exacta payoff combination using [the second choice] over [the favorite].
In other words, divide the amount that you bet on Storm Boy by the probable exacta payoff combination on Switzerland over Storm Boy.
Again, to get the probable exacta payoff combination on Switzerland over Storm Boy, you have to look at the toteboard that displays the probable exacta payoffs.
Again, if you don't have time to look for the probable exacta payoffs just use an educated guess and go from there.
Depending on the field size and competition the probable exacta payoff with [the second choice] over [the favorite] will probably be right around $7 or $8.
For example, assuming you're betting $20 to win on [the favorite] and the probable exacta payoff with [the second choice] over [the favorite] is $7, you divide $20 by $7, which is right around $3 (rounding up to the nearest whole number).
As a general rule, if it's an odd number rounding up to the next even number, $4 in this case.
So you would bet the exacta $4 on [the second choice] over [the favorite].
In other words, you would bet the exacta $4 on Switzerland over Storm Boy.
This means that our hedging returns $14 (2 x $7) and we're still losing $6 on our entire scheme.
It doesn't seem like a good scheme -- does it?
Don't be over zealous or greedy by putting too much money on the exacta that it would eat into your profits if the favorite (Storm Boy) wins.
Our hedging scheme is not to make money but to lessen the pain.
Now our hedging scheme is complete.
SUMMARY OF THE TWO-HORSE RACE ANGLE:
1. Bet Storm Boy to win.
Put a lot of money on Storm Boy to win.
2. Divide that amount on Storm Boy (from step 1 above) by the probable exacta payoff combination on Switzerland over Storm Boy.
Using the result from the division (from this step 2) to bet the exacta on Switzerland over Storm Boy.
That is it!
Two steps.
Very simple!
OPTIONAL:
What happens if you like the second choice Switerland better than the favorite Storm Boy?
In that case, you have three options:
1. Play the angle in reverse.
In other words, reverse the roles -- with the favorite [Storm Boy] as the second choice and the second choice [Switzerland], which is the horse you really like, as the favorite.
And then follow the stated angle normally as described above, but only this time, the second choice [Switzerland] acts as the favorite and the favorite [Storm Boy] acts as the second choice -- not necessarily that their odds will indicate and end up in such order.
As a matter of fact, Storm Boy's odd will most likely be 1/5 and Switzerland will most likely be around 2-1 to 5/2.
2. Play the race as you normally would and bet the race accordingly.
In other words, don't use this angle (or hedging scheme) but feel free to bet the horse the way you normally bet.
3. Do not play the race -- pass it up and sit on the sideline.
IF YOU FOLLOWED ALL ALONG WE HAVE TWO WAYS TO PLAY THE TWO-HORSE RACE ANGLE!
1. Play the angle by betting the favorite to win and hedge the favorite using the second choice over the favorite.
2. Play the angle by betting the second choice to win and hedge the second choice using the favorite over the second choice.
Very simple angle!
And a very smart way to play a race that looks to be a two-horse race.
So it's up to you to choose to play one or the other, but not both!
Yes, that is right: DO NOT PLAY BOTH WAYS -- IT'S A STUPID WAY TO PLAY!
Choose one or the other.
DO NOT PLAY THE EXACTA BY PUTTING STORM BOY over SWITZERLAND, either.
THE ONLY EXACTA YOU PLAY IS THE "HEDGING" PLAY.
There you have it!
