Picks for Saturday April 20, 2024:
BETTING STRATEGY HOLIDAY WEEK THIS WEEK: APRIL 22-28.
This week I would like to declare the week of April 22 - 28 as a holiday week for horse racing junkies like myself.
So if you are horse racing junkies like I am:
HAPPY BETTING STRATEGY HOLIDAY WEEK!
DURING THE BETTING STRATEGY HOLIDAY WEEK I WILL PUT OUT SOME BETTING STRATEGIES FOR THE UPCOMING DERBY.
BUT FOR TODAY, HERE IS A BETTING STRATEGY FOR THE UPCOMING DERBY:
DERBY BETTING STRATEGY
Here is a very good betting strategy that is suited for certain situations -- such as a situation in today's races that I'll talk more about them later on.
The strategy is called "parlay betting".
This strategy is suited for certain situations only and it's doesn't apply to every day scenario.
The word parlay is a term used in horse betting strategy that is continuously -- betting race after race continuously.
It involved parlaying a small bankroll into big winnings by turning an initial stake or winnings from a previous bet into a greater amount by gambling -- i.e., betting race after race -- continuously.
It is a cumulative series of bets in which winnings accruing from each transaction are used as a stake for a further bet.
But for this betting strategy, we do not keep betting race after race continuously non-stop.
We bet only on three races continuously and that is all.
The three races are called legs: 1st leg, 2nd leg, and 3rd leg.
The three races are chosen by you -- the the horse player.
You choose which three races to play as your parlay play.
Do not choose more than three races.
The idea of a "parlay" betting is to make as much money as we can in three races.
In order to make as much money as we can we have to bet all of our money from the winnings generated from the preceding leg, 1st leg, 2nd leg.
For example, if you bet $10 to win, place, show on a horse in the 1st leg and generated a return of more or less than the original bet amounts from the 1st leg, you have to put all of that return amount in the 2nd leg, and repeat that process for the 3rd leg as well if there is any amount left after the 2nd leg is run.
In other words, whatever the amount left after the 1st leg is run, use all that amount to bet on the 2nd leg, and again, whatever the amount left after the 2nd leg is run, use all that amount to bet on the 3rd leg.
That is called "parlay betting".
To use parlay betting strategy use the following criteria:
Handicapping:
1. This is where your handicapping skills take over.
You have to be able to handicap races on your own.
This angle won't show you how to come up with the races to bet.
You have to be able to handicap races on your own and which races and which horses to bet.
If you cannot come up with the horses to bet, stop!
Don't play the parlay -- pass up the parlay strategy and sit on the sideline!
2. You must choose three races of your choice.
Choose three races from tracks available to you.
It can be one race from one racetrack and another from another racetrack and another race from another racetrack -- or the three races can be from a single racetrack.
It's your choice to choose which three races from which racetracks available to you to play.
It doesn't matter which three races you choose as long as you like them.
Again, this is where your handicapping skills take over.
3. THIRD LEG:
The horse must be a very heavy favorite -- a sort of a cinch (or locked) that is very likely to win the race.
We only want to put all of our winnings up to this point (3rd leg) on a horse that is likely to win the race; hence, a synch or a locked.
This means that when you're handicapping the races, first look for the 3rd leg horse first and then look for the other two legs that come before the 3rd leg.
The other two legs must go off before the 3rd leg so that you can accumulate the winnings from the first two legs.
Again you must like the two races that go off before the 3rd leg because that is the only way to play the parlay betting strategy.
If you found the 3rd leg horse but you can't seem to find good horses to bet that go off before the 3rd leg, don't play the parlay -- pass up the parlay strategy and sit on the sideline!
Don't force yourself to play the parlay even if you found a good third leg horse but found the preceding legs horses a little shaky.
Again, you have to like all three horses, especially the 3rd leg horse.
4. Bet to win, place, or show only -- no exotic bets.
This means that you can choose to bet on any leg (or all legs) WIN, PLACE, or SHOW only, including the 3rd leg horse.
For example, bet $10 to win, place, show on the 1st leg; bet to place on the 2nd leg; and bet to win on the 3rd leg horse.
Or bet $10 to win, place, show on the 1st leg; bet to place and show on the 2nd leg; and bet to win on the 3rd leg horse.
Or bet $10 to win, place, show on the 1st leg; bet to show on the 2nd leg; and bet to win on the 3rd leg horse.
Again, you have to feel comfortable betting on all three horses and bet them accordingly -- meaning how much amount of money to win, place, or show in any of the leg are based on your comfort level.
In other words, the amount of money to win, place, or show in any of the leg don't have to be equivalent to one another.
Hint On Handicapping
1. Look for the 3rd Leg horse first and then look for the other preceding legs horses.
The 3rd Leg horse must be a very heavy favorite -- a sort of a synch that is very likely to win the race.
2. The first two legs must come or go off before the 3rd leg.
3. Morning Line Odd On 3rd Leg Horse: The morning line odd on the third leg horse must indicate that the horse is the favorite in today's race.
A 6/5 or less in the morning line odd is a good start of your handicapping process.
Again, this is where your handicapping skills take over.
WHAT HAPPENS IF THE FIRST LEG LOSES AND NO MONEY LEFT IN THE PARLAY BANKROLL?
Well, just like any other bettings you don't stop betting just because you lose one bet -- you continue on to the 2nd leg by putting more money on the 2nd leg and hope that the 2nd leg yields better result.
WHAT HAPPENS IF THE 2nd LEG LOSES AND NO MONEY LEFT IN THE PARLAY BANKROLL?
Again, just like any other bettings you don't stop betting just because you lose one or two bets -- you continue on to the 3rd and final leg by putting more money on the 3rd leg because this leg is your bread and butter leg.
As far as how much money to parlay -- it's up to your comfort level.
[End of Parlay Betting Strategy]
That was the parlay betting description described in great details.
Now let's put that parlay betting strategy to work to our advantage.
AS STATED ABOVE THE FIRST THING WE NEED TO DO IS TO LOOK FOR THE THIRD LEG HORSE FIRST AND THEN LOOK FOR THE OTHER PRECEDING LEGS HORSES NEXT.
LET'S DO JUST THAT NOW!
IN TODAY'S RACES THERE IS A cinch HORSE NAMED JUDGE MILLER IN RACE 7 AT SANTA ANITA PARK AND WE'LL USE THAT HORSE AS OUR 3RD LEG HORSE.
Now what's left is to find the other two legs horses and here they are:
This is the first leg.
1 1/16 Miles | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | PURSE: $80,000
Track: Aqueduct
Race: 5
Surface: Turf
Horse: Chantilly Road (ML 5-1).
Field (in post position order):
1. Grayosh (ML 1-1)
2. Colorful Lady (ML 8-1)
3. Just One More (ML 6-1)
4. Big Beautiful (IRE) (ML 8-1)
5. Chantilly Road (ML 5-1)
6. Wake Up Lauren (ML 15-1)
7. Classic Cara (ML 50-1)
8. Wish List (ML 8-1)
9. Blue Thunder (IRE) (ML 20-1)
10. Just Music (ML 6-5)
Bet Chantilly Road (ML 5-1) to win and place and show using triple down betting strategy.
Chantilly Road's final odd will most likely be right around 12-1 longshot.
This is the 2nd leg.
Ben Ali Stakes
1 3/16 Miles | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up | G3 STAKES | PURSE: $300,000
Track: Keeneland
Race: 9
Surface: Dirt
Horse: Smile Happy (ML 3-1).
Field (in post position order):
1. Time for Trouble (ML 6-1)
2. Surly Furious (ML 10-1)
3. Smile Happy (ML 3-1)
4. Kingsbarns (ML 2-1)
5. Laughing Boy (ML 15-1)
6. Archie the Giza (ML 30-1)
7. Dynamic One (ML 8-1)
8. Happy American (ML 15-1)
9. War Campaign (ML 4-1)
Bet Smile Happy (ML 3-1) to win and place using double down betting strategy.
Smile Happy's final odd will most likely be right around 9-2 3rd or 4th choice in the betting.
Note that if there is any amount resulted from the first leg you have to bet all of that amount on this leg using double down betting strategy.
This is called parlaying bet -- you have to use all of the money from the previous leg on this leg.
This is the 3rd and leg.
Californian Stakes
1 1/8 Miles | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up | G3 STAKES | PURSE: $100,000
Track: Santa Anita Park
Race: 7
Surface: Dirt
Horse: Judge Miller (ML 4-4).
Field (in post position order):
1. None Above the Law (ML 12-1)
2. Judge Miller (ML 4-5)
3. Mixto (ML 5-2)
4. Mystification (ML 12-1)
5.Mr Fisk (ML 5-2)
Bet Judge Miller (ML 4-5) to win using all of the accumulated money from the previous legs.
This is called parlaying bet -- you have to use all of the money from the previous leg on this leg.
Judge Miller's final odd will most likely be right around 1-5 as a very heavy favorite.
This is the easiest 4/5 money you'll ever going to get on the card at Santa Anita Park or at any other racetracks on this Saturday April 20, 2024.
Take this easy money 4/5 (or at whatever the price is -- 1/5 is my guess) and leave the racetrack as a winner.
Hey, a win is a win instead of chasing some longshots in hope of a big payoff as most horseplayers often do to no avail.
There you have it: Easy money!
