Pick for Sunday April 21, 2024:


Santa Maria Stakes
1 1/16 Miles | Fillies and Mares | 4 Year Olds And Up | G2 STAKES | PURSE: $200,000


Track: Santa Anita Park
Race: 9

Horse: Turnerloose (ML 8-1). Yes, that is right: Turn-her-loose and she'll win this race.


Field (in post position order):

1. Big Novel (ML 8-1)
2. Princess Bettina (ML 20-1)
3. Desert Dawn (ML 9-5)
4. Blue Dream Machine (ML 10-1)
5. Super Shine (ARG) (ML 4-1)
6. Turnerloose (ML 8-1)
7. Coffee in Bed (ML 5-2)
8. Liberal Lady (ML 10-1)


Bet Turnerloose (ML 8-5) to win and place and show.

Yes, that is right: WIN/PLACE/SHOW using triple down betting strategy and you should be going home as a winner.

Put some considerable amount of money on Turnerloose to win and place and show to make it worthwhile and justified going to the racetrack.

Turnerloose's final odd will most likely be right around 12-1 longshot.


Yes, this qualifies as my "Longshot Play of the Week" -- if not for the month, year, or century -- because I rarely pick longshots.

It's not my type of plays to play longshots (but only occasionally).

And this one is one of those rare occasions that I pick a longshot.


Take this easy money 8/1 (or at whatever the price is -- 12/1 is my guess) and leave the racetrack as a winner.


There you have it: Easy Money!


As far as Desert Dawn goes I think she is in a decline and I won't bet on her until I see something in her that tells me she is the same old self.

Her last race on March 9, 2024, she was awful while finishing 4th behind Sweet Azteca, Adare Manor, and Green Up.

She was 18 lengths behind the winner Sweet Astecta at the finish line on that day.

It was so bad that I don't know to make of her future at this point -- is she in decline or just a one day bad race?

This year I expect better things from her but her last performance was kind of a surprise to me.

I thought she would challenge the female leader (in Idiomatic) for the year-end honor but as of right now she probably relegated to running in overnight stakes at best.

Her best race may have been in last year's (2023) Breeders' Cup Distaff when she should have won the race against top horses.

Now she may be in decline.

We'll see!