Picks for Saturday April 27, 2024:
Kona Gold Stakes
6 1/2 Furlongs | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up | G STAKES | PURSE: $100,000
Track: Santa Anita Park
Race: 4
Surface: Dirt
Horse: The Chosen Vron (ML 4-5) or Forbidden Kingdom (ML 5-2).
Field (in post position order):
1. Forbidden Kingdom (ML 5-2)
2. Prince Abu Dhabi (ML 12-1)
3. See Through It (ML 15-1)
4. The Chosen Vron (ML 4-5)
5. Happy Jack (ML 8-1)
6. Zeus' War (ML 12-1)
7. Express Train (ML 6-1)
Looking at the race, at least through popular opinion, it looks to be a one-horse race with The Chosen Vron (ML 4-5) is the likely winner of this race.
However, I see a two-horse race with Forbidden Kingdom (ML 5-2) is the other close competitor that is a threat to The Chosen Vron.
But make no mistake, The Chosen Vron (ML 4-5) is the likely winner of this race.
Having said that, I think a very smart way to play this race is to use the "Two-Horse-Race" angle or should I say "Two-Horse-Race" betting strategy.
I'll leave it up to you to make the final decision on which horse to play as the "win" bet horse between The Chosen Vron and Forbidden Kingdom because this is a "two-horse-race" in my opinion.
OPTION ONE:
Bet The Chosen Vron (ML 4-5) to win and hedge that win bet by betting an exacta with Forbidden Kingdom on top of The Chosen Vron.
Divide the win bet amount on The Chosen Vron by 6 and use the result from the division as the amount to bet the exacta with Forbidden Kingdom on top of The Chosen Vron.
For example, if you bet $100 to win on The Chosen Vron, divide $100 by 6 = 16.666666 which is equivalent to 17.
If the result is an odd number, which it is (17), round it up to an even number, which is 18.
That $18 is your exacta amount to bet or should I say the insurance premium amount to protect your $100 win bet.
Exacta denomination is $2, 18 / $2 equals to 9 exacta denominations.
Bet Exacta: $18 Forbidden Kingdom / The Chosen Vron [for a probable return of $54 (9 x $6)].
Remember that the goal of the hedging scheme is not to totally get our money back but to lessen the pain and get some of our money back in case our win bet doesn't pan out.
As you can see, if you really want to insure your $100 fully you can double that $18 to $36 and you're fully protected.
But I don't recommend that because it will eat into your win bet profits.
The Chosen Vron's final odd will most likely be right around 1/5 as a very heavy favorite.
Now since The Chosen Vron's final odd will most likely be right around 1/5 it's not worth doing the hedging at all.
If The Chosen Vron's final odd ends up being right around 4/5 or higher go ahead and do the hedging bet.
In other words, just do the win bet and forget about the hedging bet.
OPTION TWO:
Bet Forbidden Kingdom (ML 5-2) to win and hedge that win bet by betting an exacta with The Chosen Vron on top of Forbidden Kingdom.
Divide the win bet amount on Forbidden Kingdom by 4 and use the result from the division as the amount to bet the exacta with The Chosen Vron on top of Forbidden Kingdom.
For example, if you bet $100 to win on Forbidden Kingdom, divide $100 by 4 = 25.
If the result is an odd number, which it is (25), round it up to an even number, which is 26.
That $26 is your exacta amount to bet or should I say the insurance premium amount to protect your $100 win bet.
Exacta: $26 The Chosen Vron / Forbidden Kingdom [for a probable return of $52 (13 x $4)].
Remember that the goal of the hedging scheme is not to totally get our money back but to lessen the pain and get some of our money back in case our win bet doesn't pan out.
As you can see, if you really want to insure your $100 fully you can double that $26 to $52 and you're fully protected.
But I don't recommend that because it will eat into your win bet profits.
Forbidden Kingdom's final odd will most likely be right around 7/2 second choice behind the very heavy favorite The Chosen Vron.
The Hedging Scheme Aims To Achieve Two Objectives
1. To lessen the pain in case the second choice beats the favorite.
2. To be comfortable enough to put a lot of money with confidence on the favorite.
The keywords here are comfortable and confidence -- we need to be comfortable and have a certain level of confidence in order to put a lot of money on the favorite.
Those are the two objectives of the hedging scheme.
There you have it: A very smart way to play a two-horse race like this race: The Kona Gold Stakes.
HERE IS A LENGTHY AND BORING DETAIL DESCRIBED IN DEPTH ABOUT THE TWO-HORSE-RACE ANGLE GIVEN ABOVE:
Two-Horse Race Betting Angle/Strategy
This betting angle/strategy has to do with a two-horse race and the two horses have to be the first and second choice in the betting for today's race.
The thinking is that, we like the favorite a lot and we would like to bet a lot of money on the favorite -- but since this is a two-horse race and the fact that the second choice is so dangerous in upsetting the favorite we can't take that chance to have a lot of our money on the favorite.
What do we do?
So in order to put a lot of money with confidence on the favorite which we think has a very good chance to win the race, we have to hedge our bets to protect our money on the favorite.
The keyword here is confidence -- we need to have a certain level of confidence in order to put a lot of money on the favorite.
Our goal is to stand behind our favorite and hope that he/she will come through; however, on the other hand, if the second choice beats our favorite and our favorite comes in second -- we will get most of our money back; hence, hedging.
If the latter happens, we live to bet another race (or another day or another week or another month).
We're not expecting to get rich by any means -- after all, we're talking about two favorites in the betting.
To hedge our bets to protect our money on the favorite, both horses have to meet the following criteria:
HANDICAPPING:
1. This is where your handicapping skills take over.
You have to be able to handicap races on your own.
This angle won't show you how to come up with the two-horse race(s).
You have to be able to come up on your own with a two-horse race(s) [on your own.]
If you cannot come up with a two-horse race, stop!
Don't bet on the race -- pass up the race and sit on the sideline!
Hint: Look at stakes races because competitive horses tend to avoid each other for the most part until big races like the Triple Crown, Breeders Cup, etc.
You will often see a lot of stakes races contain two-horse races.
Just to be clear: Two-horse races do not mean that the races contain only two horses in any/all of the races.
It means the race(s) contain a full field but there are only likely two favorites in the same race that are well-matched and the rest are just supporting casts that are running for third-place money and beyond.
2. Using the morning line or the actual toteboard odds, the two horses -- the favorite and the second choice -- must have their odds spread between the two of 2-1 or less.
Another word, the two horses are well-matched according to their odds -- not necessarily according to your handicapping skills -- because in your own intuition you believe the favorite is the superior horse in the race.
But according to the public it says the second choice is a very close second.
This angle relies on your handicapping skills and also relies on the public's consensus to back you up.
You want the public on your side.
What happens if the two horses' odd spread is more than 2-1?
In that case, the chances are the race is not a two-horse race: It's a one-horse race.
If that is the case, this angle doesn't apply.
The morning line odd spread between the second and third choice must be at least 2-1 in today's race.
For example, the morning line odd on the second choice is 2-1 and the morning line odd on the third choice is 4-1 qualifies under this criteria.
We want a two-horse race and the only way to be certain that the race is a two-horse race is to have the rest of the field's odds as farther back then the two favorites as possible -- [at least 2-1 spread].
Exception: This criteria is not set in stone -- meaning, it opens to interpretation based on your handicapping skills and judgement.
In a short field, the 2-1 odd spread may not be possible -- meaning, it could be lower than 2-1; and thus, the race could still be a two-horse race.
This is where your handicapping skills take over -- you make the final judgement on the 2-1 odd spread.
3. Both horses' last race must be run within the last five weeks of today's race.
4. Both horses' last three or four races the racing gabs must be run within five weeks apart.
We don't want one or both of our horses to have long layoff gabs between those three or four races.
We want both horses in training and racing between those three or four races un-interrupted by long layoffs caused by soundness issues.
Exception: Between those three or four races if the long layoffs happened to be in the winter months because trainers/owners resting their horses after a long campaign -- that is fine.
Sometimes the long layoffs are by design and the horse(s) will come back fresh and rejuvenated and their performance will indicate as such.
This is where your handicapping skills take over -- you make the final judgement on the long layoffs.
If both horses meet those criteria, play the horse according to the following conditions:
Post Time Odds: Observe the post time odds right around two minutes (or less) to actual post time.
1. The favorite has to be 7/5 or less.
2. The second choice has to be 5/2 or less.
If the second choice is higher than 5/2, stop!
It's not a two-horse race. Well, it still could be! But we don't want to take the chance.
If the post time odd on the favorite is 7/5 or less AND the second choice is 5/2 or less, bet the favorite to win.
That horse is going to win the race.
This is where we potentially make some money -- not a lot but some -- depending on how much money you're willing to put on the horse.
This is where your handicapping skills take over -- you make the final judgement on how much money you're willing to put on the horse.
At this point, you should feel very confident about the favorite since it meets all of the criteria.
Once again, the keyword here is confident -- we need to have a certain level of confidence in order to put a lot of money on the favorite.
This is exactly the kind of bet famous Canterbury Park track announcer usually say, "bet more win more."
You should feel very confident to bet more on the favorite since all of the criteria have been met.
HEDGING:
1. Play the exacta by putting the second choice on top of the favorite.
Notice that we're not putting the favorite over the second choice -- we're not doing that.
This is a hedging bet.
This seems counter-intuitive -- after all, this is a two-horse race.
Why not killing two birds with one stone?
Ahh! ...... this is called greed!
We don't want to be greedy!
We just want to take the win bets and that is it!
No more!
If the two favorites run one-two just like we and the public thought they would -- that's our goal!
Be satisfied and don't second-guess your betting actions.
Most horse players would say, "I should've played the exacta on the favorite over the second choice, too. This is easy money!"
Well, that second-guessing yourself: "I would've .... I should've .... I could've .....," could lead to trouble.
Why not try to make more money?
After all, we and the public think that this is a two-horse race.
Again, that is pure greed!
And that greed could lead to trouble.
The next question is: How much money to edge?
See the following.
2. Amount of money to edge.
Post Time Odds: Observe the probable exacta payoffs right around two minutes (or less) to actual post time.
If you don't have time to look for the probable exacta payoffs just use an educated guess and go from there.
As a general rule, divide the win bet amount by the probably exacta payoff combination using the second choice over the favorite.
In other words, divide the amount that you bet on the favorite by the probable exacta payoff combination on the second choice over the favorite.
Again, to get the probable exacta payoff combination on the second choice over the favorite, you have to look at the toteboard that displays the probable exacta payoffs.
Again, if you don't have time to look for the probable exacta payoffs just use an educated guess and go from there.
Depending on the field size and competition the probable exacta payoff with second choice over the favorite will probably be right around $7 or $8.
For example, assuming you're betting $20 to win on the favorite and the probable exacta payoff with the second choice over the favorite is $7, you divide $20 by $7, which is right around $3 (rounding up to the nearest whole number).
As a general rule, if it's an odd number rounding up to the next even number, $4 in this case.
So you would bet the exacta $4 on the second choice over the favorite [for a probable return of $14 (2 x $7)].
This means that our hedging returns $14 and we're still losing $6 on our entire scheme.
It doesn't seem like a good scheme -- does it?
Don't be over zealous or greedy by putting too much money on the exacta that it would eat into your profits if the favorite wins (as you expect he/she to).
The Hedging Scheme Aims To Achieve Two Objectives
1. To lessen the pain in case the second choice beats the favorite.
2. To be comfortable enough to put a lot of money with confidence on the favorite.
The keywords here are comfortable and confidence -- we need to be comfortable and have a certain level of confidence in order to put a lot of money on the favorite.
Those are the two objectives of the hedging scheme.
This Brings Us To The Idea Of A Two-Horse Race
Why is it so important to have a two-horse race?
One of the primary reason is the hedging part of the strategy so that we have a two-horse race to hedge against our win bets on the favorite.
But another important reason is to have the public believes in the second choice, and as a result, they will bet on the second choice a lot.
This will drive up the odd on our favorite considerably, making our win bets on the favorite more appealing.
We're talking about two "favorites" and don't expect the payoff to be huge or appealing.
After all, this is a hedging bet and we don't expect to make a lot of money.
Our aim (in our hedging scheme side) is to not making money but to lessen the pain in case the second choice beats our favorite.
The two-horse race angle with a hedging scheme is complete.
But wait! -- there's more!
What happens if you like the second choice better than the favorite?
In that case, you have three options:
Play the angle in reverse.
In other words, reverse the roles -- with the favorite as the second choice and the second choice, which is the horse you actually like, as the favorite.
And then follow the stated angle described above normally, but only this time, the second choice acts as the favorite and the favorite acts as the second choice -- not necessarily that their odds will indicate and end up in such order.
Play the race as you normally would and bet the race accordingly.
In other words, don't use this angle (or hedging scheme) but feel free to bet the horse the way you normally bet.
Do not play the race -- pass it up and sit on the sideline.
Those are the three options you can choose to play the race [choose one].
Now the two-horse race angle with a hedging scheme is complete.
NOW THE SUMMARY OF THE TWO-HORSE RACE ANGLE
The Play: Bet the favorite to win.
Put a lot of money on the favorite to win.
Hedging: Divide the bet amount on the favorite (from step 1 above) by the probable exacta payoff combination on the second choice over the favorite.
Using the result from the division (from this step 2) to bet the exacta on the second choice over the favorite.
Those are the two steps in the two-horse race angle.
But that is only using the favorite as the play.
The other way is to use the second choice as the play.
Now what happens if you like the second choice better than the favorite?
In that case, you reverse the roles -- with the favorite as the second choice and the second choice, which is the horse you actually like, as the favorite -- and follow the angle described earlier accordingly.
The Play: Bet the second choice to win.
Put a lot of money on the second choice to win.
Hedging: Divide the bet amount on the second choice (from step 1 above) by the probable exacta payoff combination on the favorite over the second choice.
Using the result from the division (from this step 2) to bet the exacta on the favorite over the second choice.
Again, just two steps.
Very simple!
AS YOU CAN SEE ABOVE WE HAVE TWO WAYS TO PLAY THE TWO-HORSE RACE ANGLE
Play the angle by betting the favorite to win and hedging using the second choice over the favorite.
OR
Play the angle by betting the second choice to win and hedging using the favorite over the second choice.
AS YOU CAN SEE ABOVE CHOOSE ONE OR THE OTHER
So it's up to you to choose to play one or the other, but not both!
Yes, that is right: DO NOT PLAY BOTH WAYS!
That is it -- a very lengthy and boring details!
