Pick for Saturday May 4, 2024
THE KENTUCKY DERBY
ENJOY THE KENTUCKY DERBY EVERYONE!
LET'S KICK OFF THE KENTUCKY DERBY OFF WITH A BANG!
A BANG! -- OH BOY! -- ARE WE EVER?
Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve
1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | PURSE: $5,000,000
Field (in post position order):
1. Dornoch (ML 20-1)
2. Sierra Leone (ML 3-1)
3. Mystik Dan (ML 20-1)
4. Catching Freedom (ML 8-1)
5. Catalytic (ML 30-1)
6. Just Steel (ML 20-1)
7. Honor Marie (ML 20-1)
8. Just a Touch (ML 10-1)
9. Encino (ML 20-1)
10.T O Password (JPN) (ML 30-1)
11. Forever Young (JPN) (ML 10-1)
12. Track Phantom (ML 20-1)
13. West Saratoga (ML 50-1)
14. Endlessly (ML 30-1)
15. Domestic Product (ML 30-1)
16. Grand Mo the First (ML 50-1)
17. Fierceness (ML 5-2)
18. Stronghold (ML 20-1)
19. Resilience (ML 20-1)
20. Society Man (ML 50-1)
Also Eligible:
21. Epic Ride (ML 30-1)
22. Mugatu (ML 30-1)
Bet Fierceness (ML 5-2) to win and place.
Yes, that is right: WIN/PLACE using double down betting strategy and you should be going home as a winner.
Put some considerable amount of money on Fierceness to win and place to make it worthwhile and justified going to the racetrack.
Fierceness' final odd will most likely be right around 6/5 favorite.
Take this easy money 5/2 (or at whatever the price is -- 4/5 is my guess) and leave the racetrack as a winner.
There you have it: Easy money!
FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NOT INTERESTED IN FIERCENESS' PEDIGREE PROFILE YOU CAN SKIP THE FOLLOWING DETAIL.
IT'S VERY BORING! -- BORING! BORING! BORING! BORING DETAIL!
Fierceness is a very talented horse and he wins races using his talent alone despite a modest pedigree.
He is a home-bred horse that is not impeccably well-bred if you look at his pedigree closely.
There are several horses in this year's Kentucky Derby that have a much much blue-blood silver-spoon pedigree than Fierceness.
And yet on racing record, Fierceness looks like a blue-blood silver-spoon pedigree horse than the rest of this year's Kentucky Derby field.
His blue-blood silver-spoon(--ess) racing record showcased his talent early on when he won his debut race at Saratoga by 11 1/4 lengths in August of 2023 as a two-year-old.
His next race in the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct on October 7, 2023, he finished seventh of eight, beaten 20 1/4 lengths, as the 1-2 favorite.
Here is an excerpt that I wrote on October 7, 2023, about Fierceness and his more reliable stable mate Locked:
Locked is the most likely winner of the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity Stakes [at Keenland] as appose to Fierceness who may have a distance limitation in the 1-mile Champagne Stakes.
However, I still think that Fierceness is good enough and he will win the 1-mile Champagne Stakes because of the weak competition he'll face in that race.
If you're going to put some considerable amount of money to WIN on these two horses I think Locked is the most likely winner of the two horses.
Let's put it this way: If I had to put a lot of money on just one of the two horses -- but not both -- I will put it on Locked instead of Fierceness; not because Locked's odd is a lot higher but because Locked is a mile and a quarter horse while Fierceness is just a miler horse and has distance limitation.
Having said that I still think that Fierceness is good enough to win the 1-mile Champagne Stakes because of the weak competition he'll face in that race, despite his distance limitation.
[End of excerpt]
AS YOU CAN SEE EARLY ON I HAD SOME CONCERNS ABOUT FIERCENESS' ABILITY TO GO LONGER THAN A MILE.
BUT BECAUSE HE SHOWED US THAT HE HAD A LOT OF TALENT THOSE CONCERNS WERE PUT TO REST FOR THE ONE-MILE CHAMPAGNE STAKES.
BUT THAT WAS THE ONE-MILE CHAMPAGNE STAKES -- WHAT ABOUT THE ONE-MILE AND ONE-QUARTER KENTUCKY DERBY?
CAN WE PUT THOSE CONCERNS TO REST FOR THE KENTUCKY DERBY AS WELL?
BEFORE I ANSWER THAT LET'S DIG A LITTLE DEEPER INTO FIERCENESS' MODEST PEDIGREE:
Let's first examine his last race, the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby on March 30, 2024.
Fierceness sauntered under the wire in the 1 1/8-mile contest in 1:48.22 with a 12.59-second final furlong.
He earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure (and a 106 Brisnet Speed Rating) for his effort.
Fierceness' final time was the fastest since 2017, when Always Dreaming, also trained by Pletcher, stopped the clock in 1:47.47, with a 12.53-second final furlong.
Always Dreaming wore the roses in Kentucky (2017).
Fierceness ran similar races in his maiden victory and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
In both instances, he broke well and pressed the pace before widening his lead in the stretch.
His brilliance and dominant 6 1/4-length Breeders' Cup triumph earned him Juvenile championship honors.
Fierceness (City of Light - Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) was bred by Repole Stable and races in the familiar blue-and-orange silks of Mike Repole.
Fierceness has earned $1,703,850 in five starts, with three victories and a third-place finish.
He sits second in the Derby leaderboard with 136 points while Sierra Leone is in first at 155 points.
But don't let that second place in the leaderboard scares you as the points system was given more weight in the Blue Grass than in the Florida Derby.
Had the points system was given equal weight for both races Fierceness would have sits atop of the leaderboard as of right now.
Put the points system aside, Fierceness is towering over Sierra Leone in my opinion -- not only that -- he is towering over other horses in this year's Kentucky Derby field as well.
So I expect Fierceness to win this year's Kentucky Derby in a romp -- yes, that is right: ROMP!!!
Fierceness' Sire
City of Light (Quality Road - Paris Notion, by Dehere) was in the money in all 11 starts and earned $5,662,600.
Conditioned by Mike McCarthy, City of Light made his initial start in July of his 3-year-old season, finishing second in a six-furlong maiden event at Los Alamitos.
He made three more starts at sprint distances, winning once and finishing second twice.
City of Light shined as a 4-year-old, capturing the Malibu (G1) and Triple Bend Stakes before stretching to 1 1/8 miles to win the Oaklawn Handicap (G2).
However, 1 1/4 miles was a furlong too far in the Santa Anita Gold Cup (G1), where City of Light faded to third place.
After a runner-up finish to Whitmore in the 2018 Forego (G1), City of Light ended his campaign with a pair of Grade 1 victories in the Breeders' Cup Mile and the Pegasus World Cup, which he captured by 5 3/4 lengths over a sloppy track in 1:47.71, about a second shy of Arrogate's track record of 1:46.83.
City of Light promptly set about siring classy babies in the strong class of 2022, which includes Justify, Good Magic and Bolt d'Oro.
Despite his modesty pedigree, City of Light is more accomplished as a sire of classic winners than as a racehorse himself.
He climbed the leading sire ranks, starting as the no. 9 first-crop sire, and checked in as the no. 5 leading second-crop sire when Fierceness captured the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
City of Light is currently holding his own as no. 4 third-crop sire by earnings and no. 3 by the number of winners.
City of Light is represented by two winners from 18 starters at 1 1/8 miles and farther on dirt, and his son Fearless Soldier was a fading third in the 1 1/4-mile Jockey Club Derby over a sloppy Aqueduct track.
Fierceness' Female family
Fierceness' last three dams have produced high-classed winners from sprinters to middle-distance runners.
Fierceness is the third foal and first competitor out of the winning Nonna Bella (Stay Thirsty - Nonna Mia, by Empire Maker), who was bred by Repole Stable. He has a 2-year-old full brother.
Nonna Bella's half-brother Outwork (Uncle Mo - Nonna Mia, by Empire Maker) made five starts, winning the 2016 Wood Memorial (G1) and placing second in the Tampa Bay Derby.
He finished 14th in the Kentucky Derby.
Nonna Bella's dam Nona Mia (Empire Maker - Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull) started seven times, failing to hit the board only twice.
The precocious filly was third in the 2009 Frizette (G1) and Tempted Stakes (G3), both at a mile, and was second in the six-furlong Loudonville Stakes the following year.
Nona Mia is a half-sister to Cairo Prince (Pioneerof the Nile - Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull), winner of the Nashua and Holy Bull, and missed by a nose in the Remsen, all Grade 2 stakes.
In his final start, the pretty gray colt was fourth in the 2014 Florida Derby and retired after an ankle injury.
Fierceness' third dam, Holy Bubbette (Holy Bull - Juliac, by Accipiter), captured two listed sprints and was second in the seven-furlong Chaposa Springs Handicap (G3) during her 15-race career.
Fierceness' damsire Stay Thirsty (Bernardini - Marozia, by Storm Bird) captured Grade 1 events from a mile to 1 1/4 miles and was second-bested by 3/4 length over a sloppy track in the Belmont Stakes.
Stay Thirsty's progeny have won up to 1 3/16 miles, and one was third at 1 1/4 miles on dirt.
As a broodmare sire, Stay Thirsty is represented by 45 starters.
His two stakes winners are by City of Light, Fierceness and the listed winning miler Lights of Broadway.
Let's re-visit the question posed earlier:
THAT WAS THE ONE-MILE CHAMPAGNE STAKES -- WHAT ABOUT THE ONE-MILE AND ONE-QUARTER KENTUCKY DERBY?
CAN WE PUT THOSE CONCERNS TO REST FOR THE KENTUCKY DERBY AS WELL?
THE ANSWER IS: ABSOLUTELY YES BUT ALSO DEPENDS ON THE KENTUCKY DERBY FACTORS!!!
What I really mean is that, Fierceness can win the Kentucky Derby this year in a romp, but as always, the Kentucky Derby is such a tough race to win and the best horse does not always win the race [Storm Boy in the Golden Slipper is a fresh reminder.]
In other words, Fierceness needs luck and everything must go his way in the Derby.
Fierceness has a solid middle-distance pedigree -- but other factors, such as conditioning, a perfect trip, luck, and most importantly, talent could help him go farther [i.e., 1 1/4 Derby distance].
The juvenile champ's weak spot is that he must break cleanly and can't withstand bumping, steadying or being behind horses with no room to run, particularly around the far turn and turning for home.
Well, that is true for all horses in the Kentucky Derby anyway.
So talent alone is not enough -- all need luck to win the Derby.
His talent and brilliance are undeniable, but everything must go Fierceness' way in the Derby, which seldom happens.
SO YES: FIERCENESS IS THE BEST HORSE IN THIS YEAR'S KENTUCKY DERBY!
HE IS TOWERING OVER THE FIELD!
FIERCENESS WILL WIN THIS YEAR'S KENTUCKY DERBY IN A ROMP!
ENJOY THE DERBY EVERYONE!
