HAPPY DERBY WEEK EVERYBODY !




It's that time of the year when my adrenaline is running full bore, especially after seeing the field of the Derby have been assembled and completed.

My two main horses, American Promise, East Avenue, got descend posts -- especially East Avenue who will break from post position 12, but not so much with American Promise who will break from post position 5.

Both of my horses have speed and likely to be among the first-tier speed horses -- at least for the run up to the first turn where there will be a lot of chaotic scene.

More about American Promise and East Avenue running style later.

A lot of horses will be impacted on the first turn and some horses will be forced to show speed to maintain or make position.

We know that Citizen Bull (post 1), Neoequos (post 2), Rodriquez (post 4), Admire Daytona (post 6), American Promise (post 5) and East Avenue (post 12) will show speed -- but how much speed will they show?

Also these horse will need to show speed as well to gain position -- horses like Coal Battle (post 16), Owen Almighty (post 20), Grande (post 10) and even Render Judgement (post 15) who usually races in a stalking position.

My guess is that Publisher (post 13) will also show speed due to the fact that he was slow to get out of the gate in his last three races, especially in the Arkansas Derby when he was again last out of the gate and had to make a long sustain run to finish second.

His connection, in my opinion, may have corrected his gate problem and in doing so inadvertently makes Publisher (post 13) showing speed that he never shown before -- that is my guess.

In other words, there will be quite a few horses in this year's Derby will show some speed in contrast to their prior showing and one of them is Publisher (post 13).

This means that, there will be a lot of speed in this year's Derby.

Bob Baffert is not going to take back Citizen Bull (post 1) as he said so after the post position draw, and Owen Almighty (post 20) in an outside post position is certainly not going to take back either.

He'll be gunning right out of the gate to gain position from post position 20 -- and whether he'll be among the leaders is up to the jockey to decide since Owen Almighty has enough speed to make the lead if the jockey wants him to.

Personally, I think Neoequos, in post position 2, is the likely horse to set the pace with Citizen Bull (post 1) is the likely horse to track Neoequos.

Now after the two horses I think East Avenue (post 12) is the likely third horse closely behind the two leaders, and perhaps, join by may be a few other second-tier speed horses -- horses like Owen Almighty (post 20), Rodriquez (4), Grande (post 10) and Publisher (13).

This should make my other horse, American Promise, sitting among the third-tier stalking horses -- yes, I said STALKING -- about four to five lengths behind the lone pace setter Neoequos (post 2).

That is the scenario that I see American Promise will be in the early part of the race approaching the backstretch.

I don't think American Promise will be anywhere near the front end as most experts seem to think he will be -- but from my point of view he's a third-tier stalking horse and not the first- or second-tier speed horse even though he showed speed in most of his races.

In this this year's Derby there is a lot of speed and that makes American Promise a stalking horse as apposed to a speed horse.

Music to my ears!!!

My worries is that with my other horse, East Avenue, as he is a one-dimensional speed horse who likes to be in front and seems more comfortable on the lead.

Looking at his past races, it makes me more convinced that he is not a head-strong uncontrollable horse and therefore he may be rateable and controllable behind other speed horses.

So I'm very comfortable playing him as well.

East Avenue has a very huge chance of winning this year's Derby.

I repeat:

East Avenue has a very huge chance of winning this year's Derby.


So my plays are the following:

Bet American Promise to win, place, show using triple down betting strategy.

Also bet East Avenue to win , place, show using triple down betting strategy.


ENJOY THE DERBY EVERYBODY!