THERAVADA'S JOURNEY: TAKE THREE RECAP!
DISAPPOINTING TENTH-PLACE FINISH!
High hopes and pent-up excitements on my part for Theravada's third-start of her young career came to a devastating disappointment -- not for her defeat but for the changing in her running style to be a closer.
ONE STEP FORWARD TEN STEPS BACKWARD -- VERY DISAPPOINTING PERFORMANCE BY THERAVADA!
Not only a ten-step backward but it is a puzzling performance as well and I was expecting to see her at least maintained her form -- if not improving on it.
The most startling and puzzling aspect of it is the way the race unfolded when -- surprisingly -- she was off evenly near the back of the field, third last of twelve, to be precise, about nine to ten lengths behind the early leaders.
We know she has speed, particular gate and early speed as she'd shown in her second race, but for whatever the reason, in this race, she showed no gate and early speed at all -- very disappointing to see her not utilizing her abundance of gate and early speed.
My guess is that her trainer changed her running style to be like her mom's running style to be a one-dimension, one-run stretch running horse -- that is my guess!
Why was she off evenly near the back of the field and third last of twelve?
The pace was not that quick [early on] for the one-mile race on turf with the first quarter of a mile in 23.54 seconds, half-mile in 48.0 seconds, six furlongs in 1:12.02, seven furlongs in 1:24.14, and finished one mile in 1:36.74.
Why was she near the back of the field with that kind of fractions?
I don't get it!
This tells me that her trainer changed her running style to be a one-dimension, one-run stretch runner.
That is a very bad idea to change her running style to be like her mom's running style.
I don't like that approach at all!
I like her second race's running style a lot better, because as all horse racing fans know -- speed kills -- and Theravada has abundance of speed.
Now it seems that her trainer changed her running style to be a one-run closer like her mom -- and I don't like it one bit!
Speed is her greatest asset [beside her stamina], and speed combines with stamina [through her breeding], it's a recipe for success.
Why not utilize her speed?
I don't get it!
Why not train her to be a "push button" horse?
In other words, why not train her to be a stalker instead of a one-dimension, one-run closer?
I don't get it!
Her mom never had this kind of gate and early speed and most of her races were compromised by the pace upfront and she struggled mightily to close on horses that were leaders or close to the pace.
She would always made a one-sustain run on horses but usually came up short due to the pace upfront being not fast enough for her to close on them.
To see the trainer changed Theravada's running style to be like her mom's running style is very disappointing.
After her second race I was very excited about Theravada's future due to the fact that she had abundance of gate and early speed, and now my excitement is tamed quiet a lot, if not downright disappointing.
I was hoping that her connections realizing what a great asset she has in her gate and early speed and utilizing it accordingly to their advantage.
Now I'm not so sure they realize what a huge mistake it was to not utilize her speed asset.
Still, it's not too late to revert her running style back to her second race, but it has to be sooner rather than later before she accustoms and turns into a one-dimension, one-run stretch running horse.
IT HAS TO BE SOONER RATHER THAN LATER BEFORE SHE ACCUSTOMS AND TURNS INTO A ONE-DIMENSION, ONE-RUN STRETCH RUNNING HORSE!
If she accustomed and turned into a one-dimension, one-run stretch running horse, she cannot be easily turned into a speed horse, especially as she grows older and older -- that is a fact!
She is three-year-old and window of opportunity to revert her back to speed is closing every single day as she gets older and older.
I hope her connections realize that -- but I wouldn't hold my breath for her connections to realize that.
I think they are thinking that if her mom can win multiple graded stakes races with a one-dimension, one-run stretch running style, Theravada can do the same.
That is a mis-guided thinking, in my opinion.
I am very disappointing that her connections seem to feel that way, and as such, in my opinion, Theravada's future is bleak -- not a lot to look forward to!
It is fair to say that I'm not as excited nor looking forward to see her run as was after her second race.
My enthusiasm is now very tamed!
As any horse racing fan knows that a big and tall horse with a distance pedigree (like Theravada) who has abundance of speed is a dangerous horse to his/her competitors.
Case in point is East Avenue who is a big and tall horse with abundance of speed (combines with distance pedigree) and he utilized his speed to win the Keeneland Futurity in 2024 as a 2yo, beating a stellar group of 2yos.
I am not telling you anything new here, it is a universally well-understood horse racing paradym that a big and tall horse with a distance pedigree who also has abundance of speed is a "weapon" ready to fire [or a force to be reckoned with] -- and is a dangerous horse to his/her competitors.
It is the law of Physics that the bigger, taller you are the harder and slower you are to get going -- it's a true fact!
If you drive an SUV vehicle you know that it takes a while to get going, i.e., to go from zero to sixty speed readings; however, it doesn't take as long to go from zero to sixty speed readings if you drive a sedan vehicle.
This is the law of Physics at work!
The law of Physics applies to horses as well, horses like Theravada and East Avenue who are big and tall and both have speed combined with distance pedigree.
To make these horses to not utilize their deadly "weapon" or speed (like Theravada's trainer did) is just a mis-guided understanding of the law of Physics.
Leading up to last year's Breeders' Cup (2024), you may recall Marcus Hersh of the DRF writing articles about East Avenue's combination of size, height, speed, and stamina -- a rare combination that makes East Avenue a horse to beat in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile 2024.
Leading up to East Avenue's 3yo debut race in the Risen Star Stakes (2025), Marcus Hersh, again, pointed out in his article that East Avenue's combination of size, height, speed, and stamina, making East Avenue a force to be reckoned with in that race.
And sure enough, East Avenue exploded right out of the gate the fastest of twelve runners to set the pace but Magnitude had other idea when he sprinted quickly from post position 12 to take over the pace setting from East Avenue when they crossed the wire for the first time, and Magnitude continued to set the pace to win that race as a 43-1 longshot.
The winning time of 1:48.85 for the 1 1/8 mile race is the fastest time since the distance was extended in 2020.
As for East Avenue, he defied the law of Physics by showing abundance of speed and agility to almost setting the pace but relegated to chasing a smaller rival all the way to the top of the stretch and tired.
It was his first race since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile 2024 race.
Marcus Hersh didn't tell us anything new, either -- it was a universally well-understood horse racing paradym that all of horse racing fans knew all about since the existence of horse racing.
Whether they read Marcus Hersh's articles or not, they sent East Avenue off as the 2-1 post time favorite in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile race 2024.
Likewise, they sent East Avenue off as the 8-5 post time favorite in the Risen Star Stakes 2025 as well.
My point is, all horse racing fans, including trainers, know that a big and tall horse with a distance pedigree who also has abundance of speed is a "weapon" ready to fire [or a force to be reckoned with] -- and is a dangerous horse to his/her competitors.
So Theravada's connections should also know this universally well-understood horse racing paradym.
Or do they?
I hope they do -- but I wouldn't hold my breath on that either.
Looking at the totality of Theravada's race, it was a very good race containing a full field of tough group of twelve runners after a horse in post position six got scratched -- and therefore, moving Theravada one slot better to post position eleven while also drawing in a horse from the "also eligible" list horses into the race.
This race is a race for maiden special weight fillies and mares 3yo and up; however, it is only one 4yo Hello Beauty and the rest are mainly 3yo fillies.
Theravada was sent off as a 9-1 longshot behind the 3-1 post time favorite Mo Expectations (post 6) and the little over 3-1 second choice Hello Beauty (post 1) and the 4-1 third choice Bembridge Ledge (post 8), the winner of the race.
Running Game (post 2) finished second at 5-1 fourth choice in the betting, Hello Beauty finished third, while Mo Expectations, the race's favorite, finished fourth.
Theravada finished ten of 12, beaten about fifteen to eighteen lengths by Bembridge Ledge.
That is a massive defeat considering in her second race she was seventh, beaten nine and one-quarter lengths after dueling fast fractions and she was still leading inside the eight pole [in that race].
I attribute to her massive defeat in this race due to in particular in the changing of her running style, and perhaps, her competition played a role as well.
This race seems a little tougher than her previous two races but well within her ability as it should be.
In other words, she belongs with this group of tough horses and it will serve her well into the future, albeit not a very exciting one.
This is a case of one step forward ten steps backward and you are never going to get anywhere.
That is how I feel after seeing this race.
With that said, we should take some solace knowing that this race is full of future stars potential, although I have to admit that Theravada is at the very bottom of that list if the trend takes its course.
One such star potential is Mo Expectations by Uncle Mo and she is out of a Bernardini mare Havisham, making Mo Expectations a half-sister to Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress.
Mo Expectations is trained by Brad Cox.
Mo Expectations was sent off as the 3-1 favorite and finished fourth, beaten 3 3/4 lengths without any apparent excuse.
As stated earlier, the pace was not that quick [early on] for the one-mile race on turf with the first quarter of a mile in 23.54 seconds, half-mile in 48.0 seconds, six furlongs in 1:12.02, seven furlongs in 1:24.14, and finished one mile in 1:36.74.
The track record for the mile distance on turf listed as 1:32.88.
So this race was run almost four seconds slower than the track record -- however, it is an average running time for a group of this caliber of maiden special weight fillies and mares 3yo and up.
To put into more perspective, consider a race that was run two hours earlier in race four for the same one mile distance also on turf but for a much higher and tougher condition and tougher group of horses as well.
This race is for three-level allowance, [optional claiming price $125k], purses $134k, for fillies 3yos.
This race was run somewhat slower than Theravada's race with the first quarter of a mile in 24.32 seconds, half-mile in 49.0 seconds, six furlongs in 1:13.49, seven furlongs in 1:25.14, and finished one mile in 1:37.00 -- comparatively very slow considering that these horses are stakes horses who had competed in stakes races and most of them have very good running lines.
There are tough group of seven 3yo fillies in that race but the race produced slower fractional and final times than Theravada's race.
Case in point, the 5/2 second choice in that race, a horse named Admit ran in the Ashland Stakes (Gr I) at Keeneland April 2025.
Before that race, Admit was third in the Bourbonette Oaks Stakes, a Kentucky Oaks prep race being run at Turfway Park in March 2025.
Prior to that race, Admit finished second in the Cincinati Trophy Breeders Stakes at Turfway Park in February 2025.
Another horse named Just Ruthless also ran against Admit in both the Bourbonette Oaks Stakes and the Cincinati Trophy Breeders Stakes, however, Just Ruthless didn't do as well as Admit in both of those races.
The point is, both of these two horses are good stakes horses.
One more horse named Zealous Moon also ran against Admit and Just Ruthless in the Bourbonette Oaks Stakes at Turfway Park in March 2025.
Just Ruthless had some successes with good running lines on races at Churchill Downs prior to the meeting with Admit at Turfway Park.
As a matter of fact, after breaking her maiden by six lengths on November 10 (2024), Just Ruthless battled a very fast 2yo filly named Book'Em on November 30 (2024) on the card known as the "Future Stars of Tomorrow".
Book'Em ran that mile race in 1:34.17 while earning a whopping Beyer of 94 -- the highest number for a 2yo filly at that time.
Sadly, the following year in February (2025), Book'Em broke down while training and she was euthanized as a result of the severe fracture to her leg.
As for Just Ruthless, she battled Book'Em head-to-head from start to deep stretch when she got tired to finish fifth, beaten 14 1/2 lengths by Book'Em.
Another horse named Mean Eileen finished fourth, beaten 2 1/2 lengths in the $1 million Juvenile Fillies at Kentucky Downs in September 2024.
To top it all off, a highly regarded $130k OBSMAR24 purchase 3yo filly trained by Steve Assmusen named Mila Rose who just competed in the Miss Preakness Stakes on Preakness under card four weeks ago.
She finished fifth in that tough race -- not bad!
The point is, this race is full of good 3yo fillies with future stars potential.
However, this race produced slower fractional and final times than the race Theravada ran -- albeit Theravada was not a factor in making those times.
Still, you would think that this race should produced faster times than the one Theravada was in.
The thing to take away for future handicapping purposes, Theravada not withstanding, is to judge the horses in the race that Theravada was in with positive and favorable weight than those horses in this third-level allowance race.
In other words, put more weight in horses like Mo Expectations when she runs next time because she helped produced her race to be faster than the third-level allowance race.
Well, sort of in the mix of helping -- but you get the idea!
Personally, I think Mo Expectations is a future star in the making with that impeccable breeding.
